本文阐明了对船用避碰雷达装置进行可靠性预计的必要性;並就国内首创的S—ARPA的研制工作采用元器件应力分析法进行了可靠性预计和分析;提出了对失效率高、可靠性差的发光显示器件采用並联冗余技术及控制动态显示等方式来降低单元失效率,从而对提高系统可靠性的问题提出了看法。最后,就对元器件采用降额设计的方法以提高设备可靠性的途径作了进一步的探讨。 This paper clarifies the necessity of predicting the reliability of marine collision avoidance radar devices. The reliability prediction and analysis of the S-ARPA, a pioneering work in China, is carried out by component stress analysis. Poor performance of the light-emitting display devices using redundant parallel technology and control of dynamic display and other means to reduce cell failure rate, thereby raising the issue of system reliability. Finally, the way to degrade the reliability of the equipment by means of the derating design of components is further explored.