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本文运用协整和因果关系检验理论,对四川省从1990年到2007年的外国直接投资与经济增长数据进行实证检验。结果发现二者之间存在长期稳定的关系,并且当滞后两期时,经济增长是外国直接投资的格兰杰原因,而外国直接投资并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。在协整分析的基础上建立了误差修正模型,分别从长期和短期对两者之间的关系进行了定量分析,并给出了结论和政策建议。
This paper uses the theory of cointegration and causality test to test the data of FDI and economic growth in Sichuan province from 1990 to 2007. The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between the two, and when lagging for two periods, economic growth is the Granger reason for FDI, while foreign direct investment is not the Granger reason for economic growth. Based on the co-integration analysis, the error correction model is established. The relationship between the two is quantitatively analyzed from the long-term and short-term, respectively, and the conclusions and policy recommendations are given.