转型经济背景下,房地产既是支柱产业,也是过剩产业,学术界测度的房地产泡沫越来越大,风险越来越高,但政策面却逐渐放宽,大力救市。本文以状态空间模型来测度房地产泡沫的上限,并以Logit模型测度房地产泡沫下限,发现以价格度量的房地产价格泡沫正在膨胀,而以投资量度量的房地产泡沫正在加速收缩,这种收缩会放缓经济增速,杠杆放宽需要从需求端延伸至供给端。 In the context of the transitional economy, real estate is both a pillar industry and an excess industry. As the real estate bubble measured by the academic circles is getting bigger and bigger with more and more risks, the policy is gradually relaxed and the market is vigorously rescued. This paper uses the state-space model to measure the upper bound of real estate bubble, and uses the Logit model to measure the lower limit of real estate bubble. It finds that real estate price bubble is expanding with the price measurement, while the real estate bubble with investment quantity is accelerating contraction, which will slow down. Economic growth, leverage needs to be extended from the demand side to the supply side.