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针对尾矿库隐患及事故风险演化问题,面向尾矿库生命周期阶段,对事故影响因素包括技术,人为,环境与管理等因素和尾矿库隐患进行了辨识,进而构建了尾矿库事故风险演化的复杂网络模型.通过分析尾矿库复杂网络模型的特征参数和指数,得到了有关尾矿库隐患及风险演化的整体网络和事故子网的一些特性和规律;通过进行网络干扰和测试全网效率指数,找出了尾矿库风险演化复杂网络的关键节点(隐患),对预防和控制尾矿库隐患及事故风险演化具有指导意义.研究结果表明,尾矿库风险演化网络具有小世界网络特征,体现为局部空间或特定时间上的因素变化或干扰即可引发尾矿库系统的灾变,中间中心度较高的节点(隐患)是尾矿库风险演化过程中的关键节点(隐患),优先处置关键节点(隐患)有助于预防尾矿库事故的发生.
In view of the hidden danger of tailings pond and the evolvement of accident risk, facing the tailing pond life cycle stage, the influencing factors of the accident including technology, man-made, environment and management are identified and the hazards of tailings pond are identified, then the risk of tailings pond accident Evolution of the complex network model.By analyzing the characteristic parameters and indexes of the complex network model of tailings dam, some characteristics and laws of the whole network and accident subnet about the hidden danger and risk evolution of tailings pond are obtained. Through the network interference and testing It is instructive to find out the key nodes (hidden dangers) of the complicated network of tailings dam risk evolution, which is instructive in preventing and controlling the hidden danger of tailings pond and the evolution of accident risk.The results show that the tailing bank risk evolution network has a small world The network characteristics are reflected in the change or interference of factors in local space or at specific time, which can lead to the catastrophic changes of the tailings pond system. The nodes (hidden dangers) with high centrality are the key nodes (hidden dangers) in the evolution of the tailings pond. , Giving priority to disposing of key nodes (hidden dangers) will help to prevent the occurrence of tailings dam accidents.