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鉴于河南省干旱灾害时有发生,严重影响了其农业生产,选择能够反映农作物水分供需平衡的相对湿润度指数作为干旱评价指标,以春、初夏、伏、秋季为时间尺度评价了河南省典型年份的干旱事件,并与历史干旱记载进行对比,发现以春、初夏、伏、秋为时间尺度的相对湿润度指数在河南省具有较好的适用性。在此基础上,预测了不同气候变化情景下河南省的干旱易发区。结果表明,春和初夏季是河南省最容易发生干旱的两个季节;空间分布上,未来干旱易发区主要分布在河南省北部,在两种气候情景设置下,安阳、新乡、郑州、商丘、开封、宝丰、三门峡、许昌等地市均发生干旱事件,因此应重视以上地市的防旱抗旱工作。
In view of the occurrence of drought disasters in Henan Province, it has seriously affected its agricultural production. The relative humidity index, which can reflect the balance between water supply and demand of crops, was selected as the index of drought evaluation. The typical years of Henan Province were evaluated with spring, early summer, autumn and fall as time scales Compared with the records of historical drought, it was found that the relative humidity index of the spring, early summer, autumn and autumn as a time scale has good applicability in Henan Province. On this basis, we forecast the drought-prone areas in Henan Province under different climate change scenarios. The results show that spring and early summer are the two seasons most prone to drought in Henan Province. In the spatial distribution, the future drought-prone areas are mainly distributed in the northern part of Henan Province. Under the two climate scenarios, Anyang, Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, Shangqiu , Kaifeng, Baofeng, Sanmenxia, Xuchang and other cities and cities have a drought event, it should pay attention to the above drought and drought in cities and towns.