进入21世纪的时候,让我们用一种明确的方式来描述一下计算机行业,从而能或多或少地理解这个行业。请注意,多年来,人们一直在寻找个人计算机现象的最佳类比对象,目的就是要找到另一种也是经过了同样的成长方式的行业。最好的例子就是汽车行业,虽然这个例子并不十分完美。我曾经办过一个关于早期无线电的专栏,那时的情况同现在的计算机迷们很相似。随着Internet的兴旺,这两种类比方式又被重提,我们则需要加以区别看待。 As we enter the 21st century, let us describe the computer industry in a clear way so that we can understand the industry more or less. Note that over the years, people have been looking for the best analogies for the phenomenon of personal computers, with the goal of finding another industry that has also gone through the same growth path. The best example is the automotive industry, though this example is not perfect. I once had a column on early radio, when the situation is very similar to the current computer fans. As the Internet thrives, these two analogies are repeated, and we need to be treated differently.