本文在论述用死亡度来描述强震破坏合理性的基础上，利用与目前震害资料现状相一致的概率模型和相关资料，计算得到了中国各分区在未来不同时间发生不同死亡度的概率曲线；并以动态系统模型为基础，处理了历史的人口损失资料。最后，对两种资料的结果进行了分析和讨论。 Based on the discussion of the rationality of death damage to describe the damage of strong earthquakes and the probabilistic model consistent with the current status of earthquake damage data and relevant data, the probability curves of different degrees of death in different regions of China in different periods are calculated. ; And based on the dynamic system model, the historical population loss data were processed. Finally, the results of the two kinds of information are analyzed and discussed.