一、认真分析统计资料是进行预测的关键进行预测时,最基本的论据是设备投资。要以民间设备投资的征询调查为依据进行预测,因为设备投资的作用比消费等因素的作用大,而且波及效应大。至于这方面的调查,最应受到重视的首推日本经济新闻社每两个月进行一次的调查,以及开发银行和长期信用银行所作的调查。在这些调查的基础上,还要考虑到技术革新等定性研究。对于出口、个人消费、财政的变化,要认真分析统计资料后再 First, a careful analysis of statistical data is the key to forecast the forecast, the most basic argument is equipment investment. To private investment in the investment inquiry survey as the basis for prediction, because the role of investment in equipment than the role of consumption and other factors, and the spread effect. As for the investigation in this respect, the most important consideration deserves to be paid every two months for the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, as well as the investigations made by the Development Bank and the Long-term Credit Bank. Based on these surveys, qualitative studies such as technological innovations should also be taken into account. For exports, personal consumption, financial changes, we must carefully analyze the statistical information