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为了分析高速公路施工作业区车辆的换道行为,运用生存分析的半参数方法,建立基于风险的车辆强制换道持续时间模型,通过无人机采集包茂高速公路陕西境内某路段施工作业区的交通数据,对道路车辆强制换道持续时间进行估计.结果表明:强制换道持续过程的生存时间大于5s的概率约为80%,大于10s的概率为28%,一半以上处在5～10s之间;当距离小于400m时,换道起点至合流点距离越近,车辆强制换道持续时间越短;当距离大于400m时,车辆换道持续时间开始降低.车辆换道时间持续到t时刻,在至合流点距离50～100m范围内开始换道的车辆,在下一时刻完成换道的可能性最大.
In order to analyze the lane changing behavior of vehicles in the construction operation area of expressway, the semi-parametric method of survival analysis was used to establish the risk-based mandatory lane changing duration model and the unmanned aerial vehicle was used to collect the construction operation area of a certain section of Shaanxi- Traffic data to estimate the duration of compulsory lane change for road vehicles.The results show that the probability of surviving more than 5s in forced lane change is about 80%, the probability of exceeding 10s is 28%, and more than half is in 5 ~ 10s When the distance is less than 400m, the shorter the lane change starting point to the confluence point, the shorter the vehicle forced lane change duration, the longer the vehicle lane change duration when the distance is greater than 400m, the vehicle lane change lasted for time t, Vehicles that start lane change within 50-100 m of the confluence point are most likely to complete the lane change at the next moment.