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目的研究云南省输入性疟疾病例的时间分布特征,掌握输入性疟疾的流行动态。方法收集疟疾个案调查表和流行病学资料,剔除本地感染病例,整理归纳并进行统计分析。结果云南省输入性疟疾病例具有季节周期性(Q=26.574,P<0.05)和趋势性(Q=35.487,P<0.05),输入高峰为5月,低谷为2月,输入病例数差异有统计学意义(Z=-2.619,P<0.05)。简单季节性模型为最佳分析预测模型(R~2=0.677,BIC=4.867),残差序列为白噪声(Q=14.226,P>0.05)。运用模型对2016年1月、2月、3月的输入性疟疾病例数进行预测,预测值(95%CI)分别为29(7~50)、22(0~44)和31(8~54),实际发病数为29、24和38例,均在预测值的95%CI内。结论云南省输入性疟疾病例具有季节性和趋势性特征,所构建模型对近期病例有较好的预测效果。
Objective To study the temporal distribution of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province and to understand the prevalence of imported malaria. Methods The questionnaires and epidemiological data of malaria cases were collected, the cases of local infection were excluded, and the cases were summarized and analyzed statistically. Results The incidence of imported malaria in Yunnan Province was seasonal (Q = 26.574, P <0.05) and trend (Q = 35.487, P <0.05). The input peak was in May and the trough was in February. Significance (Z = -2.619, P <0.05). The simple seasonal model was the best prediction model (R ~ 2 = 0.677, BIC = 4.867), and the residual sequence was white noise (Q = 14.226, P> 0.05). The number of imported cases of malaria in January, February and March 2016 was predicted using the model. The predicted values (95% CI) were 29 (7-50), 22 (0-44) and 31 (8-54) ), The actual incidence of 29, 24 and 38 cases, all within the predicted 95% CI. Conclusion The cases of imported malaria in Yunnan Province have seasonal and trend characteristics. The constructed models have a good predictive value for recent cases.