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为保障向昆明市供水的掌鸠河引水供水工程水源地(云龙水库(含双化水库))水源充足,对云龙水库上游掌鸠河天然径流量进行精确预报就显得十分必要。为此,采用Copula函数构建相邻月径流之间的联合分布函数,给出了基于Copula函数的月径流预测方法及步骤,并将其应用于云龙水库上游掌鸠河天然径流量预测中。结果表明,2011~2013年各月的天然流量均处于预测流量的上、下限之间;2011~2013年各月径流量预测值的相对误差多为5%~15%。显然基于Copula函数的月径流预测精度较高,可为云龙水库(含双化水库)水资源调度及水资源优化配置、防洪抗旱提供参考依据。
In order to protect the water supply source (Yunlong Reservoir (including Shuanghua Reservoir)) of the Zhangjiuhe River diversion and water supply project that supplies water to Kunming City, it is necessary to accurately predict the natural runoff of the Zhangjiao River upstream of Yunlong Reservoir. Therefore, Copula function was used to construct the joint distribution function between adjacent monthly runoff. The method and procedure of monthly runoff prediction based on Copula function were given and applied to the natural runoff prediction of Zhangjiuhe River upstream of Yunlong Reservoir. The results show that the monthly natural flows of 2011-2013 are all within the upper and lower limits of the predicted flow rates. The relative errors of the monthly runoff forecast values for each period from 2011 to 2013 are 5% -15%. Obviously, the accuracy of monthly runoff prediction based on Copula function is high, which can provide reference for water resources dispatching, optimal allocation of water resources and flood control and drought relief of Yunlong Reservoir (including Shuanghua Reservoir).