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本文介绍了一个产出和投资动态导致商业周期产生的演化模型。这个模型描述的经济系统由企业、消费者/工人组成。企业分属两个不同的产业,第一个产业开展研发工作并生产不同种类的机器设备,第二个产业内的企业进行新的设备投资并生产同质的消费品。消费者出卖他们的劳动并花费掉他们的全部收入。按照有关投资模式的实证文献,企业的投资决策是分块进行的,而且受到财务结构的限制。模拟结果表明,这个模型能够实现自我维持的增长模式,这种模式的特点就是存在内生的商业周期。这个模型也可以复制一些有关宏微观经济动态的最重要的典型事实。
This article describes an evolutionary model in which output and investment dynamics lead to business cycles. The economic system described by this model consists of companies, consumers/workers. The enterprises are divided into two different industries. The first industry carries out research and development and produces different types of machinery and equipment. The enterprises in the second industry invest in new equipment and produce homogenous consumer products. Consumers sell their labor and spend all their income. According to the empirical literature on investment models, corporate investment decisions are carried out in blocks and are limited by the financial structure. The simulation results show that this model can achieve a self-sustaining growth model characterized by an endogenous business cycle. This model can also reproduce some of the most important typical facts about the macroeconomic dynamics of macros.