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信息和心理偏差的非完全同质性导致投资者形成异质的主观预期,因而市场中的投资者可细分为持有不同主观预期的群体。当原群体成员主观预期发生调整时,该群体成员可能就会转移到与其新预期相似的群体中,或者与其他投资者组成一个新的群体,从而引发群体间规模的此消彼长或新预期类型群体的产生,最终实现群体间的演化。据此,文章提出“个体—群体—群体”的演化路径,系统阐述了资产价格波动的形成机制:现实市场中的群体演化必然引起不同资金流的合并或分化,从而导致市场资金流分布格局发生演变,进而推动资产价格波动。这一结论从社会互动这一独特视角进一步揭示了资产价格波动及资产价格泡沫形成机制。
The incomplete homogeneity of information and psychological bias leads investors to form heterogeneous subjective expectations, so investors in the market can be subdivided into groups with different subjective expectations. When the members of the original group adjust their subjective expectations, the members of the group may move to a group similar to their new expectation or form a new group with other investors, thus triggering the shift or new expectation of the size of the group The generation of types of groups, and ultimately the evolution of groups. Accordingly, the article proposes the evolution path of “individual-group-group”, systematically expounds the formation mechanism of the fluctuation of asset price: the evolution of groups in the real market will inevitably lead to the merger or division of different capital flows, resulting in the distribution of market capital flows The pattern has evolved to further asset price volatility. This conclusion further reveals the asset price volatility and asset price bubble formation mechanism from the unique perspective of social interaction.