考虑水库调蓄影响的设计洪水计算方法

来源 :第十届中国水论坛 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户：chengxiulong33

【摘要】

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【作者】

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刘章君郭生练李天元徐长江

【机构】

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武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉

【出处】

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第十届中国水论坛

【发表日期】

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2012年6期

【关键词】

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梯级水库调蓄作用设计洪水 Copula函数

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水库的调蓄作用,改变了其下游天然洪水的水文情势,直接影响下游断面的设计洪水.以清江流域梯级水库为例,通过基于Copula函数的条件期望和最可能地区组成,结合规范采用的同频率地区组成方法,拟定了五种水布垭水库和区间流域洪水组合方案,推求受水布垭水库调蓄影响的隔河岩断面设计洪水.计算结果表明:与天然情况相比,考虑水布垭水库调蓄的不同重现期隔河岩断面设计洪水均减小.削减最大的是条件期望组合Ⅰ方案,最小的是条件期望组合ⅡT方案.规范采用的同频率方法有一定的代表性,但它既不是最可能发生的,也不是对隔河岩断面防洪最不利的情形.研究成果可以供清江梯级水库防洪调度与运行管理参考,同时为水库下游断面设计洪水计算提供了一条新思路.

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考虑水库调蓄影响的设计洪水计算方法

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