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目的 探讨交通环境因素对道路伤害的影响 ,为减少交通事故发生提供依据。方法采用主成分回归分析法分析我国 195 1～ 1998年机动车数量、公路运输量和公路里程数等因素与人身安全的关系。结果 人身安全与机动车数量、公路货运量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数呈正相关关系 (相关系数分别是 0 .8714、0 .96 91、0 .96 11、0 .95 10 ,P =0 .0 0 0 5 ) ,即道路伤害死亡率 (/ 10万 )随着机动车数量、公路货运量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数增加而升高 ,人身安全水平降低 ;采用逐步筛选法将各交通环境因素引入方程 ,并利用主成分回归分析法以克服各因素间的多重共线性 ,其中机动车数量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数进入回归方程 (Y =- 3 .7197+ 1.49E 0 3X1+ 5 .2E 0 6X3+ 6 .19E 0 2X4 )。结论 机动车数量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数的增加是导致人身安全水平降低的主因 ,影响强度因素依次为有路面公路里程数、公路客运量、机动车数量。通过改善交通环境 ,加强交通安全管理和提高居民的交通安全意识 ,可以减少道路伤害的发生。
Objective To explore the impact of traffic environment on road injuries and provide basis for reducing traffic accidents. Methods The principal component regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the number of motor vehicles, the amount of road traffic and the number of highways in our country from January 1 to 1998 and personal safety. As a result, personal safety was positively correlated with the number of motor vehicles, road freight traffic, road passenger traffic and road surface mileage (the correlation coefficients were 0.8714,0.96 91,0.96 11,0.95 95, P = 0 0 0 0 5), that is, the death toll of road injuries (/ 100000) increased with the increase of the number of motor vehicles, the volume of highway traffic, the number of highway passenger traffic and the number of paved roads, and reduced the level of personal safety; The law introduces each traffic environment factor into the equation, and uses principal component regression analysis to overcome the multicollinearity among various factors. The number of motor vehicles, the number of road passenger transport and the number of pavement roadways enter the regression equation (Y = -3.7197 + 1.49E 0 3X1 + 5 .2E 0 6X3 + 6 .19E 0 2X4). Conclusions The number of motor vehicles, the number of highway passenger traffic and the increase of pavement highway mileage are the main causes of the decrease of personal safety level. The influencing factors are the pavement highway mileage, highway passenger traffic volume and motor vehicle number. By improving the traffic environment, strengthening traffic safety management and raising residents’ awareness of traffic safety, road injuries can be reduced.