正确看待“八项规定”的经济影响

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去年末以来,全国上下开展了一系列围绕“厉行勤俭节约,反对铺张浪费”的活动。通过对近期统计数据的分析,本报告认为这项活动确实遏制了部分不合理消费行为,烟酒、化妆品、花卉以及餐饮业等受其影响较大,值得关注。但整体来看这项活动对整体消费和财政收入的短期负面影响有限;导致消费、财政收入增速出现较大幅度的下滑的根本原因是增长阶段的转换,而非“八项规定”。长期来看,这项活动有利于规范市场价格,引导理性消费,改进政府支出效益,提高全社会运行效率,促进经济增长质量的提高。因此需要通过预算制度和收入分配制度的改革以及政府支出结构的优化等措施减少该活动的短期不利影响,发挥其长期效果。 Since the end of last year, a series of activities have been carried out all over the country around “exercising diligence and frugality and opposing extravagance and waste.” Through the analysis of recent statistical data, this report considers that this activity has actually contained some unreasonable consumption behaviors. The tobacco and alcohol, cosmetics, flowers and the catering industry are greatly affected by this report and are worthy of attention. However, as a whole, the short-term negative impact of this activity on overall consumption and fiscal revenue is limited. The fundamental reason for the relatively large decline in the growth rate of consumption and finance revenue is the shift in the growth stage rather than the “eight provisions” . In the long run, this activity is conducive to regulating market prices, guiding rational consumption, improving the efficiency of government expenditures, improving the efficiency of the entire society and promoting the quality of economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the short-term adverse effects of the activity and make full use of its long-term results through the reform of budget system and income distribution system and the optimization of government expenditure structure.
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