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文章从一个新的角度实证分析了我国经常项目大幅顺差的成因,利用中国1982～2008年时间序列数据和可靠的计量方法,在5变量系统内考察了金融深化、财政支出对经常项目的影响,实证结果显示:金融深化和财政支出是影响经常项目的重要因素,其中金融深化对经常项目的影响处于上升的趋势,是影响中国经常项目的最重要的因素,而财政支出对经常项目的影响处于下滑的趋势;进一步分析发现,国内低层次的金融发展水平和低水平的社会性公共支出导致经常项目持续大额顺差的出现,文章据此提出调节中国经常项目持续大额盈余的政策建议。
The article empirically analyzes the causes of the large current account surplus in China from a new perspective. Based on the time series data and reliable measurement methods of China from 1982 to 2008, this paper examines the impact of financial deepening and fiscal expenditure on the current account in a five-variable system, The empirical results show that financial deepening and fiscal expenditure are important factors affecting the current account. The impact of financial deepening on the current account is on the rise. It is the most important factor that affects the current account in China. The influence of the fiscal expenditure on the current account is at The further analysis shows that the low level of financial development in China and the low level of social public expenditure lead to the occurrence of large current account surpluses. Based on the above, the article puts forward the policy suggestions on adjusting the large current surpluses of China’s current account.