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为探讨与食管癌放射治疗相关的死亡危险因素，并对患者放疗后的生存率进行预测，收集１９８０年１月～１９９０年１２月在我院行放射治疗的食管癌患者８６３例，经５年以上随访，结合临床和食管钡餐片Ｘ线表现，列出１６个与疗效有关的可能因素，采用国际通用的ＳＡＳ和ＳＰＩＤＡ软件，分别进行单因素和Ｃｏｘ模型多因素分析。单因素分析共８个因素有显著意义（Ｐ＜０．０５），其中４个因素经模型筛选有显著意义（α＝０．０５），它们按贡献大小依次排列为：疗后Ｘ线改变（Ｘ１６），Ｘ线分型（Ｘ１１），年龄（Ｘ１）和疗后进食（Ｘ１４），得出的模型为ｈ（ｔ）＝ｈｏ（ｔ）·ｅｘｐ（０．０１０Ｘ１－０．１５１ｘ１１－０．１８１Ｘ１４＋０．１６４Ｘ１６）。采用非参数法进行预测预后的研究，其数学模型为：Ｓ（ｔｉ）＝［Ｓｏ（ｔｉ）］ｅｘｐ（βχ），式中Ｓｏ（ｔｉ）为一不连续的常数值，可由Ｃｏｘ模型求得。另外，应用生存率曲线图亦可对患者预后进行评估。由Ｃｏｘ分析可知，影响食管癌放疗预后的因素是多方面的，放疗对局部病灶的控制程度对预后影响更大。同时，计量预测患者生存率，为综合评估放疗疗效与预后提供了参考依据。
To investigate the risk factors associated with radiotherapy for esophageal cancer and to predict the survival rate after radiotherapy, 863 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent radiotherapy in our hospital between January 1980 and December 1990 were collected. The above follow-up, combined with X-ray findings of clinical and esophageal barium meal films, listed 16 possible factors related to efficacy, using the internationally-available SAS and SPIDA software to perform single factor and multivariate Cox model analysis, respectively. Univariate analysis of a total of 8 factors was significant (P <0.05), of which 4 factors were significantly screened by the model (α = 0.05), and they are arranged in order of contribution: X-ray changes after treatment ( X16), X-ray type (X11), age (X1) and post-treatment feeding (X14), the resulting model is h(t)=ho(t)·exp(0.010X1-0.151x11-0. 181X14+0.164X16). The non-parametric method for predicting the prognosis of the study, the mathematical model is: S (ti) = [So (ti)] exp (β χ), where So (ti) is a discontinuous constant value, can be obtained by the Cox model . In addition, the survival rate curve can also be used to assess the prognosis of patients. According to Cox analysis, there are many factors affecting the prognosis of esophageal cancer radiotherapy. The degree of control of local lesions by radiotherapy has a greater impact on the prognosis. At the same time, the prediction of the survival rate of patients provides a reference basis for comprehensive evaluation of radiotherapy efficacy and prognosis.