供应链是一个具有层级结构的复杂网络,一般包括制造商层、零售商层和需求市场层等渠道成员。为描述供应链网络的动态特征,本文将决策时间离散划分为多个规划期,同一规划期内各类成员的决策环境相对稳定;相反在不同规划期之间可能发生改变。制造商生产多种类型的产品,零售商面临随机需求环境且为损失规避者。运用前景理论描述了零售商的损失规避行为,利用制造商的库存转移来描述相邻规划期间的关系。利用变分不等式、对偶理论和互补理论刻画了制造商层、零售商层和需求市场层的最优决策行为,并推导整个供应链网络的均衡条件。设计了求解模型的修正投影算法。通过算例阐明了零售商盈亏平衡点的特征,分析了损失规避系数对供应链网络企业最优决策的影响。研究表明:随着损失规避系数的增大,零售商的第1盈亏平衡点减小,第2盈亏平衡点增大;零售商的订货量减小,其期望利润和期望效用增加,相反制造商和消费者的利益均受损;随着缺货成本的增加,零售商需向制造商订购更多的产品来规避缺货损失,但这也同时增加了其过量订货和滞销的风险;当零售商在某一期的损失规避系数发生改变时,零售商和制造商需在整个规划期范围内调整策略。 Supply chain is a complex network with a hierarchical structure, generally including channel members such as manufacturer level, retailer level and demand market level. In order to describe the dynamic characteristics of the supply chain network, this paper divides the decision-making time into multiple planning periods discretely. The decision-making environment of all kinds of members in the same planning period is relatively stable; on the contrary, it may change between different planning periods. Manufacturers produce many types of products, retailers face random demand environment and are loss avoidants. Using the theory of prospect, the retailer’s loss avoidance behavior is described, and the manufacturer’s inventory transfer is used to describe the relationship between adjacent planning periods. Using variational inequality, duality theory and complementary theory characterize the optimal decision-making behavior of the manufacturer, retailer and demand markets and derive the equilibrium conditions of the entire supply chain network. A modified projection algorithm for solving the model is designed. Through the example, the characteristics of the breakeven point of the retailer are clarified, and the influence of loss avoidance coefficient on the optimal decision of the supply chain network enterprises is analyzed. The results show that as the loss avoidance coefficient increases, the first breakeven point of retailers decreases and the second breakeven point increases. The retailer’s order quantity decreases and its expected profit and expected utility increase. On the contrary, the manufacturer And consumer interests are impaired; as out-of-pocket costs increase, retailers have to order more products from manufacturers to avoid out-of-stock losses, but this also increases their risk of over-ordering and slow-moving; Retailers and manufacturers need to adjust their strategies throughout the planning period when the loss aversion coefficient of a firm changes in a given period.