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近年来中国股票市场运行与宏观经济表现之间呈现出复杂的关系,股票市场自身的波动更是招致颇多争议。本文运用因果关系等分析方法进行实证研究,力图探求这种复杂关系背后的本质。从实际上证指数和经济变量绝对值来看,笔者利用相关数据进行了实证检验,发现GDP值、社会货币供应量这2个经济变量对整个股票市场的具有明显影响,上证指数与经济变量之间存在显著的因果关系。
In recent years, there has been a complicated relationship between the operation of China’s stock market and macroeconomic performance. The fluctuations of the stock market itself have caused quite a lot of controversy. This paper uses causal analysis and other analytical methods to conduct empirical research, trying to explore the nature behind this complex relationship. From the actual index and the absolute value of economic variables point of view, the author conducted an empirical test using the relevant data and found that the two economic variables of GDP and social money supply have a significant impact on the entire stock market, between the Shanghai index and economic variables There is a significant causal relationship.