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基于2000年1季度至2013年4季度的样本数据,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型重点考察了外部需求冲击对我国工业产能利用水平的影响.实证结果表明,外部需求冲击对工业产能利用水平具有正向作用,外部需求波动主要通过影响我国对外出口水平进而对工业企业的生产与经营造成冲击.随着时间的推移,外部需求冲击对工业产能利用水平的正向冲击作用逐渐减弱.
Based on the sample data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2013, the author uses the VAR model to investigate the impact of external demand shock on the level of industrial capacity utilization in our country.The empirical results show that the impact of external demand on the industrial capacity utilization level Positive effect and external demand fluctuation mainly impact on the production and operation of industrial enterprises by affecting the level of China’s export. Over time, the positive impact of external demand shock on industrial capacity utilization gradually weakened.