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随着经济的发展和气候变化的持续，全球特大洪水造成的损失迅猛上升。位于奥地利的国际应用系统分析研究所的研究人员预测，到2050年洪水导致欧洲的损失将翻倍。在这项最新发表在《自然-气候变化》期刊上的研究中，他们认为了解大规模洪水造成的危害越来越重要,是掌控气候适应性的关键。
社会经济增长造成风险大约增加了三分之二，这是由于经济增长会增加更多的建筑和基础设施，洪水破坏的也就更多。另外的三分之一将来自气候变化，因为它或将改变欧洲的降水模式。
阿姆斯特丹环境研究所负责协调此次研究的博仁顿·江曼称：“我们这项研究，聚集了水文学、经济学、数学和研究气候变化适应性等多个领域的专家，这让我们首次全面评估大陆洪水风险，并比较不同的适应性选择。”
该研究估计，2000年至2012年间平均每年洪水导致欧盟损失49亿欧元，到2050年平均每年的损失将增至235亿欧元。此外，似2013年欧洲洪水规模的灾难爆发的频率将从现在的每16年一次，增加到2050年的每10年一次。
此项研究分析结合了气候变化模式和社会经济发展模式，以便更好的预测欧盟地区的洪水风险。
As development and climate change continue, losses from extreme floods throughout the world skyrocket. Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Austria have projected that the losses in Europe could more than double by 2050. In the new study which is published in the journal Nature Climate Change, they contend that understanding the risk posed by large-scale floods is of growing importance and will be key for managing climate adaptation.
Socioeconomic growth accounts for about two-thirds of the increased risk, as development leads to more buildings and infrastructure that could be damaged in a flood. The other third of the increase comes from climate change, which is projected to change rainfall patterns in Europe.
"In this study we brought together expertise from the fields of hydrology, economics, mathematics and climate change adaptation, allowing us for the first time to comprehensively assess continental flood risk and compare the different adaptation options," says Brenden Jongman of the Institute for Environmental Studies in Amsterdam, who coordinated the study.
The study estimated that floods in the European Union averaged €4.9 billion a year from 2000 to 2012. These average losses could increase to€23.5 billion by 2050. In addition, large events such as the 2013 European floods are likely to increase in frequency from an average of once every 16 years to a probability of once every 10 years by 2050.
The analysis combined models of climate change and socioeconomic development to build a better estimate of flood risk for the region. IIASA researcher Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler led the modeling work on the study.
(Source: http://www.enn.com/wildlife/article/47116)
社会经济增长造成风险大约增加了三分之二，这是由于经济增长会增加更多的建筑和基础设施，洪水破坏的也就更多。另外的三分之一将来自气候变化，因为它或将改变欧洲的降水模式。
阿姆斯特丹环境研究所负责协调此次研究的博仁顿·江曼称：“我们这项研究，聚集了水文学、经济学、数学和研究气候变化适应性等多个领域的专家，这让我们首次全面评估大陆洪水风险，并比较不同的适应性选择。”
该研究估计，2000年至2012年间平均每年洪水导致欧盟损失49亿欧元，到2050年平均每年的损失将增至235亿欧元。此外，似2013年欧洲洪水规模的灾难爆发的频率将从现在的每16年一次，增加到2050年的每10年一次。
此项研究分析结合了气候变化模式和社会经济发展模式，以便更好的预测欧盟地区的洪水风险。
As development and climate change continue, losses from extreme floods throughout the world skyrocket. Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Austria have projected that the losses in Europe could more than double by 2050. In the new study which is published in the journal Nature Climate Change, they contend that understanding the risk posed by large-scale floods is of growing importance and will be key for managing climate adaptation.
Socioeconomic growth accounts for about two-thirds of the increased risk, as development leads to more buildings and infrastructure that could be damaged in a flood. The other third of the increase comes from climate change, which is projected to change rainfall patterns in Europe.
"In this study we brought together expertise from the fields of hydrology, economics, mathematics and climate change adaptation, allowing us for the first time to comprehensively assess continental flood risk and compare the different adaptation options," says Brenden Jongman of the Institute for Environmental Studies in Amsterdam, who coordinated the study.
The study estimated that floods in the European Union averaged €4.9 billion a year from 2000 to 2012. These average losses could increase to€23.5 billion by 2050. In addition, large events such as the 2013 European floods are likely to increase in frequency from an average of once every 16 years to a probability of once every 10 years by 2050.
The analysis combined models of climate change and socioeconomic development to build a better estimate of flood risk for the region. IIASA researcher Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler led the modeling work on the study.
(Source: http://www.enn.com/wildlife/article/47116)