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目的定量评价辽宁省沈阳市日平均气温短期变化对居民呼吸系统疾病日均死亡率的影响。方法运用半参数一般递加模型,在控制长期趋势、气压和季节等混杂因素的基础上,分析沈阳市1992～2000年日间平均气温与居民日呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系。结果呼吸系统疾病死亡率与日平均气温呈反“J”型关系,最适日均气温为22.3℃,日均死亡率曲线在低温区间(<22.3℃)的水平与长度均明显高于高温区间(>22.3℃),≥65岁年龄组是气温升降变化的易感人群。慢性阻塞性肺疾患(COPD)死亡率随气温的降低呈单调递增趋势,肺炎死亡率对高温区的气温增加更敏感。结论沈阳市居民日均呼吸系统疾病死亡率与日平均气温呈反“J”型关系。≥65岁老年人应提高防护意识以减少因气温变化导致的呼吸道疾病的发生。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the impact of short-term changes in daily mean daily temperature on daily average mortality of respiratory diseases in Shenyang, Liaoning Province. Methods Based on the semiparametric general additive model, the relationship between the daily mean daily temperature and the death of respiratory system diseases on residents day from 1992 to 2000 in Shenyang was analyzed on the basis of controlling the long-term trend, air pressure and seasonal confounding factors. Results The mortality of respiratory system was inversely correlated with the average daily temperature. The optimal daily average temperature was 22.3 ℃. The average daily mortality rate was significantly higher than that at the low temperature (<22.3 ℃) High temperature range (> 22.3 ℃), ≥ 65 years of age group is the temperature changes in the susceptible population. Mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) tends to increase monotonically with decreasing temperature, and pneumonia mortality is more sensitive to temperature increase in hot areas. Conclusion The daily average respiratory mortality rate of Shenyang residents is inversely correlated with the average daily temperature. ≥ 65-year-olds should raise their awareness of protection to reduce the occurrence of respiratory diseases caused by changes in temperature.