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准确的能源消耗预测可以为企业制定能源消耗工单、发现并控制能源消耗异常提供方法和数据支持。在分析烟草企业生产流程及能源消耗特点的基础上,收集目标企业近两年的生产数据和环境数据,采用三级计量方法采集工艺环节各设备的能耗统计,按照国际通用规则,将各类能耗转化为标准煤指标,利用统计分析软件,构建了基于烟草生产的能源消耗预测回归模型,采用逐日验证的方法以实际生产数据对模型的正确性和适用性进行了验证,并基于该模型为企业生产能耗提供标杆参考值。验证结果表明,构建的预测模型仿真结果误差较小,可以为烟草企业能源精细化管理提供方法支撑。
Accurate energy consumption forecasting can provide methods and data support for enterprises to develop energy consumption orders, find and control abnormal energy consumption. Based on the analysis of the production process and energy consumption characteristics of tobacco companies, the production data and environmental data of the target enterprises in the past two years are collected. The energy consumption statistics of all equipments in the process are collected by three-level measurement methods. According to the common international rules, The energy consumption is converted into the standard coal index. The regression model of energy consumption prediction based on tobacco production is constructed by using statistical analysis software. The correctness and applicability of the model are verified by daily verification method based on the actual production data. Based on the model For the production of energy to provide benchmarking reference value. The verification results show that the error of the simulation results of the forecasting model is small, which can provide the method support for the refinement management of tobacco enterprises.