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目的探讨用时间序列ARIMA模型对法定传染病发病率进行预测的可行性。方法用SPSS 18.0对安溪县2005—2010年传染病月发病率进行ARIMA模型拟合,用所得模型对2011年各月发病率进行预测并与实际值比较。结果 ARIMA(0,1,1)×(1,1,0)12模型拟合良好,2011年各月预测值与实际值趋势吻合。结论 ARIMA模型能很好地模拟传染病发病率时间序列变动趋势,对疫情监测有重要意义。
Objective To explore the feasibility of using the time series ARIMA model to predict the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases. Methods The monthly incidence of infectious diseases in Anxi County from 2005 to 2010 was fitted with ARIMA model using SPSS 18.0. The incidence rate of each month in 2011 was predicted by the model and compared with the actual value. Results The ARIMA (0,1,1) × (1,1,0) 12 model fits well and the predicted values of all the months in 2011 are in good agreement with the actual values. Conclusion The ARIMA model can well simulate the trend of the time series of the incidence of infectious diseases and is of great significance to the epidemic surveillance.