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展望2016年,美联储加息和中国央行降息是影响全球金融市场的重要因素,背后折射的是两个最大经济体的动能。本文将从利率与经济的关系入手破解宏观供求之谜。货币金融连接供给和需求,也可以导致供需持续偏高,体现为市场利率偏离与充分就业一致的均衡利率。中国尚处于金融周期下半场的调整阶段,去杠杆带来过剩储蓄,均衡利率下降。既然需求相对供给疲弱反映了一些结构性因素,在总需求管理之外,更需要供给和需求端的结构改革。供给侧改革对经济的影响最终将体现为均衡利率回升,或者限制均衡利率下降的空间。
Looking ahead to 2016, the rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China are important factors influencing the global financial markets. What is reflected behind is the kinetic energy of the two largest economies. This article will start from the relationship between the interest rate and the economy to solve the mystery of macro-supply and demand. The supply and demand of monetary and financial connections can also lead to continued high supply and demand, reflected by the deviation of the market interest rate from the equilibrium interest rate consistent with full employment. China is still in the adjustment phase of the second half of the financial cycle, deleveraging has brought excess savings and equilibrium interest rates have dropped. Since the relative weakness of demand reflects some structural factors, in addition to the aggregate demand management, structural reforms in the supply and demand sectors are more needed. The impact of supply-side reform on the economy will ultimately be reflected in a rebalancing of the equilibrium interest rate or a space that limits the declining balance of interest rates.