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目的分析河南省周口市传染病自动预警(时间模型)信息系统运行情况,探讨该系统运行功效,为提高传染病预警能力及效率提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对相关资料进行分析。结果 2008年4月21日—2012年12月31日,该系统共发出预警信号7 464次,涉及病种24种。排除7 462次,判断疑似事件2起。现场调查366次,确认暴发2起。该系统对突发公共卫生事件的预警灵敏度为100%,预警信号阳性率为0.03%。结论该系统能及时发现异常疫情并发出预警信号,但预警信号阳性率偏低。应由“时间模型”向“时空人群模型”转变。
Objective To analyze the operation status of automatic warning (time model) information system of infectious diseases in Zhoukou City, Henan Province, and to explore the operational effectiveness of the system in order to provide the basis for improving the early warning capability and efficiency of infectious diseases. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the relevant data. Results From April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012, the system issued a total of 7 464 warning signals involving 24 kinds of diseases. Exclude 7 462 times, judging from 2 suspected cases. On-site investigation 366 times, confirmed the outbreak of 2. The sensitivity of the system to early public health emergencies was 100%, and the positive rate of early warning signals was 0.03%. Conclusion The system can detect abnormal epidemic in time and send out early warning signal, but the positive rate of early warning signal is low. Should change from “Time Model ” to “Space Time Crowd Model ”.