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本文将我们对抵押贷款的预计损失从以前的3000亿美元修正为3500-4200亿美元。在修正过程中,本文没有使用以前的根据次贷债券综合指数(ABX)定价的潜在违约方法,因为这些价格易受资金流动影响并且波动性极大,可能导致对损失的错误估计。相反,文中采用了违约模型方法,并且允许通过对一段时期内房屋销售额来实现抵押品回收。把美国商业银行产生的损失单列出来,然后考察达到资本标准需要减少多少杠杆行为。银行如果单纯通过盈利方式来抵消损失,将需要6-12个月,而且还取决于联邦利率的降低和银行的分红政策。由于银行如果想要扩张资产负债表,则需要更多的资本,所以本文探讨了主权财富基金等外部机构注资的可能性,并且还讨论了以信托公司决议模式(RTC)来使用公共资金这一新颖计划,以及发行零息债券等方式。文章最后讨论了道德风险问题,以及对欧洲、亚洲的影响和非银行公司放贷行为的影响。
This article corrects the projected loss to our mortgage loan from $ 300 billion to $ 350 billion to $ 420 billion. In the course of the correction, we did not use the previous default method of pricing under the subprime mortgage bond index (ABX) because these prices are highly volatile and volatile and can lead to false estimates of losses. Instead, the model uses a default model and allows the collateral to be recovered through the sale of the home over a period of time. List the losses incurred by the U.S. commercial banks and examine how much leverage needs to be reduced to meet capital standards. It would take 6-12 months for a bank to offset losses simply by way of profit, but also by a reduction in federal interest rates and bank dividend policy. As banks need more capital if they want to expand their balance sheets, the paper explores the possibility of capital injection by external institutions such as sovereign wealth funds and also discusses the use of public funds as a trust company resolution model (RTC) Innovative plans, and issuing zero-coupon bonds. Finally, the article discusses the issue of moral hazard, as well as its impact on Europe, Asia and the lending behavior of non-bank companies.