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传统的蒙特卡罗模拟方法在分析由于参数不确定性修正而引起的可靠度修正问题时效率较低。为此,提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的高效边坡可靠度修正方法,该方法主要包括2个关键步骤:1)根据参数初始分布利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算边坡的失效概率,并输出蒙特卡罗模拟的失效样本;2)利用参数统计特征值修正后的联合概率密度函数和蒙特卡罗模拟失效样本计算修正后边坡的失效概率。以两个边坡问题为例说明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明:所提出的方法在计算修正的失效概率过程中无需重新执行蒙特卡罗模拟,计算过程简单、计算效率高。此外,所提方法能够适用于隐式表达功能函数的边坡可靠度修正问题,并能够有效地解决单变量和多变量修正的边坡可靠度修正问题。
The traditional Monte Carlo simulation method is inefficient in analyzing the reliability correction problem caused by the parameter uncertainty correction. Therefore, a method to correct slope reliability based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. The method mainly includes two key steps: 1) Calculating the probability of slope failure by Monte Carlo simulation according to the initial distribution of parameters; Output the failure samples of Monte Carlo simulation; 2) Calculate the failure probability of the modified slope by using the joint probability density function and the Monte Carlo simulation failure samples after the correction of the parameter statistical eigenvalue. Taking the two slope problems as an example, the validity of the proposed method is illustrated. The results show that the proposed method does not require the replay of Monte Carlo simulations in the process of calculating the corrected probability of failure. The calculation process is simple and the computational efficiency is high. In addition, the proposed method can be applied to slope reliability correction of implicit function, and can effectively solve the slope reliability correction problem with univariate and multivariable correction.