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火山活动是影响全球气候变化的重要自然因子。在年代际预测试验中加入火山气溶胶强迫会带来火山爆发后短期内气候响应回报技巧的改变。基于耦合气候系统模式FGOALS-s2的中国科学院大气物理研究所年代际气候预测试验(DP-EnOI-IAU试验)结果,分析了火山活动对太平洋海温年代际预测技巧的影响。DP-EnOI-IAU试验引入了平流层火山气溶胶的辐射外强迫变化,在模拟的1960—2005年共发生4次强的热带火山爆发事件。结果表明,DP-EnOI-IAU试验在多数年份对太平洋海温具有显著的预测技巧,但预测技巧在1982年El Chichon火山爆发和1991年Pinatubo火山爆发后显著下降。模式对火山爆发后ENSO位相的模拟偏差导致了其对太平洋海温年代际预测技巧的下降。对于1982年El Chichon火山爆发,在火山爆发峰值时期和第3年冬季,赤道中东太平洋均表现出与观测相反的海温型响应,使得DP-EnOI-IAU试验对太平洋海温的年代际预测技巧显著下降。在1991年Pinatubo火山爆发后的秋冬季和第3年冬季,观测和模拟的热带海温型亦相反,模式对1991年火山爆发后太平洋海温的预测技巧降低。相对于1982年El Chichon和1991年Pinatubo火山爆发,模式对1963年Agung火山爆发后热带海温型响应的模拟与观测较为一致,此次火山爆发没有带来太平洋海温预测技巧的显著下降。
Volcanic activity is an important natural factor affecting global climate change. The addition of volcanic aerosol coercion to the decadal predictions will lead to a change in the short-term response to climate response after volcanic eruptions. Based on the results of the DP-EnOI-IAU experiment conducted by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, coupled with the FGOALS-s2 model of coupled climate system, the influence of volcanic activity on the forecasting skills of the Pacific SST was analyzed. The DP-EnOI-IAU experiment introduced a radiative forcing change in the stratospheric volcanic aerosol, and a total of four strong tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the simulated 1960-2005. The results showed that the DP-EnOI-IAU test had significant predictive skills for the Pacific SST in most years, but the prediction skills decreased significantly after the 1982 El Chichon volcano eruption and 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The simulated deviations of the ENSO phase from volcanic eruptions led to the declining of their interdecadal prediction skills over the Pacific SST. For the El Chichon volcanic eruption in 1982, during the peak period of volcanic eruption and the third year of winter, the equatorial central and eastern equatorial Pacific showed antinociceal SST response, which made the decadal prediction technique of the Pacific SST by the DP-EnOI-IAU test Decreased significantly. In the fall and winter of the Pinatubo volcano in 1991 and in the third year of winter, the observed and simulated tropical SST patterns are also opposite. The model reduces the prediction skills of Pacific SST after the 1991 eruption. Compared with 1982 El Chichon and 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruptions, the model is consistent with the observations and simulations of the tropical SST response after the 1963 Agung volcano eruption. The volcanic eruption did not bring about a significant drop in the Pacific SST prediction skills.