2012年是实施“十二五”规划承上启下的重要一年,也是我国经济发展环境不确定性极大的一年。从外部环境看,金融危机阴霾仍在,“二次探底”风险犹存;欧债危机解决进入关键一年,美国债务问题仍看不到曙光;全球泛滥的流动性、地缘政治动荡再次推高大宗商品价格的可能性增大,洪水、地震等自然灾害对粮食供给、全球供应链的威胁仍不能排除。从内部环境看,出口引擎失速的同时扩大消费的手段仍受掣肘,消 2012 is an important year for carrying out the “Twelfth Five-year Plan” and is also a year of great uncertainty in the economic development environment of our country. Judging from the external environment, the financial crisis is still in a gloomy mood. The risk of “second exploration bottom” still remains. As the debt crisis in Europe is entering a crucial year, the dawn of the U.S. debt problem can not be seen. The global liquidity and geopolitical turmoil The possibility of pushing up commodity prices again increases. Natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes can not rule out the threat of food supply and global supply chain. From the internal environment, the export engine stalls while expanding the means of consumption is still constrained, consumer