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中国隐含能的进出口核算已经得到广泛的研究关注,如何在中国可承受的代价范围内降低隐含能净出口规模还需要深入分析.本文基于投入产出分析和多目标规划原理,构建了隐含能进出口结构优化模型,在保障中国经济持续发展和就业稳定的前提下,研究如何通过进出口贸易结构优化来减少隐含能的净出口规模;并根据约束差异,设置了无约束和基准约束两类情景.研究结果显示:在无约束情景下,隐含能净出口的最大降低比例为19.99%,但同时造成的GDP损失率和失业率分别达到4.6%和9.01%;在基准约束情景下,隐含能净出口减少4.41%,造成的GDP损失率和失业率分别为0.47%和4.19%.因此,在当前中国经济结构下,仅通过进出口贸易结构的调整,很难从根本上改变中国隐含能净出口的现状.
Implicit import and export accounting in China has received extensive attention, and how to reduce the net implicit export size within the affordable price range in China still needs in-depth analysis.Based on the input-output analysis and the principle of multi-objective programming, this paper constructs Implicit import and export structure optimization model, under the premise of ensuring China’s sustained economic development and employment stability, how to reduce the implicit net export scale through the optimization of import and export trade structure; and according to the constraint differences, set up an unconstrained and The results show that under the unconstrained scenario, the maximum reduction rate of implicit net exports is 19.99%, but at the same time, the GDP loss rate and unemployment rate are 4.6% and 9.01% respectively. In the benchmark constraint Under the scenario, the implicit net export can be reduced by 4.41%, causing the GDP loss rate and unemployment rate to be 0.47% and 4.19% respectively. Therefore, under the current economic structure in China, it is very difficult to adjust the import and export trade structure only from the fundamental On the change of China’s implicit net exports of the status quo.