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近30年来,泰国经济迅速发展,国内财富大量增加,贫困状况也日益改善。然而,泰国仍被不公平的问题困扰着。长久以来,泰国的发展集中在首都曼谷及其周围地区,违背了长期发展会趋同的新古典主义理论。尽管之前有大量关于泰国贫困和不均衡现象的研究,但这些研究关注的地域层面很有限且未进行实证研究,因而具有局限性。本文则致力于弥补这方面的不足。本文着重考察过去20年中,泰国各省在省人均生产总值(GDP)方面的差异,使用了威廉姆森的人口加权变异系数来衡量这些差异。本文还利用巴罗和萨拉伊马丁模型研究了各省收入趋同的证据和收入增长的决定因素,最后分析了各省贫困状况的差异,以及各省的经济增长在何种程度上减少了贫困。研究结果发现:各省人均产值的差异逐渐扩大;没有发现各省收入趋同的证据,尤其是在后危机时代更是如此。本文通过分析发展的决定因素发现:造成人均产值差异日益扩大的主要原因是工业区只集中在少数几个省份;而人均产值差异的日益扩大也导致了各省贫困状况差异的增大。另外,主要由贫困导致的经济衰退也表明:尽管人均产值的增长降低了贫困率,但收入分配上的不公平则加大了贫困率。在后危机时代,贫困的不均弹性要比贫困的增长弹性大得多。因此,一些人均产值较高但收入差距也大的省份,并不一定有着较低的贫困率。上述分析表明,泰国要想减少地区间的差距,必须严格执行推动区域发展并且减少收入分配不公平的政策。
In the recent 30 years, Thailand’s economy has developed rapidly, its domestic wealth has increased substantially, and its poverty situation has also been improving day by day. However, Thailand is still plagued by unfair issues. For a long time, Thailand’s development has been concentrated in and around the capital, Bangkok, contrary to the neoclassical theory of convergence in long-term development. Despite a great deal of previous research on poverty and imbalances in Thailand, the limited coverage of these studies and their lack of empirical research have their limitations. This article is dedicated to remedying this deficiency. This paper examines the differences in provincial GDP per capita in Thailand over the past two decades and uses Williamson’s population-weighted coefficient of variation to measure these differences. The article also uses the Barrow and Sara-i-Martin models to study the evidence of income convergence and the determinants of income growth in the provinces. Finally, it analyzes the differences in poverty among provinces and to what extent the economic growth in each province reduces poverty. The results of the study found that the differences in per-capita output among provinces gradually widened; there was no evidence of convergence of income across provinces, especially in the post-crisis era. By analyzing the determinants of development, we find that the main reason for the widening output gap per capita is that the industrial zones are only concentrated in a few provinces; and the ever-increasing per-capita output gap has also led to the increase in the differences in poverty among provinces. In addition, the economic recession, mainly caused by poverty, also shows that although the growth of output per head reduces the poverty rate, the unfair distribution of income increases the poverty rate. In the post-crisis era, the uneven elasticity of poverty is much greater than the growth of poverty. Therefore, some provinces with higher output per capita but with large income disparity do not necessarily have lower poverty rates. The above analysis shows that in order to reduce the disparity between regions, Thailand must strictly implement the policy of promoting regional development and reducing the unfair distribution of income.