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本文以汶川为例,基于GIS的空间分析和图解建模方式分别构建了两个空间统计模型,分析了地质环境因子的影响作用,并对灾区进行了评估与区划。结果表明:高程与地形起伏对地质灾害影响较大;信息量模型操作简单,易于快速评估,预测精度较低;逻辑回归模型预测精度较高,计算过程较为复杂;地质灾害极高敏感区位于岷江两侧,地形切割强烈、构造发育,形成了大量的地质灾害。
Taking Wenchuan as an example, this paper constructs two spatial statistical models based on spatial analysis and graphical modeling based on GIS, analyzes the influence of geological environment factors, and evaluates and divides the affected areas. The results show that elevation and topography have a great influence on geological disasters. The information model is simple to operate and is easy to evaluate quickly with low prediction accuracy. The logistic regression model has high prediction accuracy and complicated calculation process. The extremely sensitive geological disasters are located in the Minjiang River On both sides, the terrain is strongly cut and structurally developed, forming a large number of geological disasters.