The Impact Of Financial Instability On The Macroeconomic Asymmetric

来源 :中国国际财经 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:stong_sz
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
  Abstract:With the social market economy and financial architecture continue growing stronger financial system for the impact of the market economy is continually infiltrate,Internal financial system instability issues is also increasingly prominent, where financial instability macroeconomic showing a significant asymmetric,It attracted the attention of domestic and international economic scholars.This article does not affect the financial stability of macroeconomic asymmetric preliminary research and analysis, so as to solve this problem to make some suggestions and solutions for economists reference.
  Key words:Financial instability;Macroeconomic;Asymmetric
  Introduction
  With the rapid development of the domestic market economy, the financial system is continually improved and sound. But the economic crisis at this stage of the financial system also have occurred, where financial instability is the fuse. Whether large-scale or small-scale financial and economic crisis, turmoil in the financial system are the main core, which proves the importance of the overall nature of the financial system. Wherein the stability of the financial system is also a major factor of macroeconomic regulation and control, and they contact each other mutual integration. Scholars specialized in the economic field established the International Financial Stability Oversight Board, mainly for making an effective macroeconomic regulation and control, and regularly issue financial stability report to the social and economic fields. Wherein the macroeconomic impact of financial instability is still asymmetrical social market economy is an urgent need to solve a major problem, and this asymmetric impact of the rapid development of the social market economy is also growing, in types of financial risk gradually increased difficulty of monitoring financial risks are increasing, if not able to reasonably control the instability of the financial impact on the good macroeconomic asymmetry, social and economic development of the market will also be severely affected.
  1. Financial instability Perspective and model
  (1) Perspective Analysis Of Financial Instability
  Instability of the financial system led to large-scale financial crisis, as a basis the root causes of the problem is based on the view angle to study the establishment of a model of the article, but this is simply an experimental model selected variables. Economic growth has a step at this stage of the formation of an unstable state of the economy professional scholars are not aware of the increasing financial risk index, changing the industrial structure of the financial system led to a further escalation of the financial risk index.   (2) Financial Instability Model Approach
  Many of the financial system variables have two common characteristics, namely consistency and synchronization. In this one containing a common potential variables affecting the financial system in these variables. Meanwhile economists would call this common potential instability variable state of the financial system, thereby performing data analysis can be taken when dealing with dynamic factor model, and then finish creating space model regime switching state is based on "financial instability hypothesis "knowledge-based theory of the last available financial variables affect the common potential instability.
  2. financial instability Overview
  (1) The instability of financial reasons
  Factors affecting the market at the present stage of socio-economic stability of the financial system are too many, this article focuses on the following three points:
  First,changes in the financial markets
  Present social market economy that is the main branch of the financial markets, it has the universal nature of the market. Funds rate between supply and demand in the economic structure affected, profit and cost stock market and so there is a common phenomenon, namely the phenomenon of volatility. Financial instability is also due to the ever-changing financial markets, caused by large fluctuations.
  Second,The risk prevention mechanisms are inadequate
  In recent years, although the pace of industrial development finance is relatively fast, but due to the late start for risk prediction and assessment of the financial industry generated, monitoring and prevention, measures and capacity issues and other aspects of post-processing are not perfect and sound . If the financial turmoil appears, the structure of the financial industry chain will be seriously challenged, capital and other aspects of the loss is very large. Therefore, an important reason for making the financial system there is always a state of instability is due to the financial risk forecasting system and regulatory aspects of the lack of prevention capabilities.
  Third,changes in the country's macroeconomic policies
  There is also a very important reason for the instability of the financial system, that change in the national government's macroeconomic policies, such as in the development of SMEs has been supported by the national policies of the Government, it issued a major firm interest rate shall be lowered at the same time financial institutions also allow easy recovery of funds industry. But if the social market economy at a higher rate of inflation in state, national policies will be promulgated by appropriate policy solutions, for example, the government will make a major firm in a corresponding increase in interest rates, so that the money in circulation is reduced. In the meantime the securities markets and investment banks and other financial companies are subject to different degrees of impact, which is one of the causes of the financial market instability created.   (2) Performance of financial instability
  As mentioned earlier, the fuse of the financial crisis that is financial instability, and financial instability is also reflected in the wide variety of levels of respect. Wherein the instability of the most direct expression is the most important financial potential economic crisis.
  First,Present occurrence probability of domestic financial crisis the IMF is not high, it is because we take the national socialist economic system, the high capacity of the national government's macro-control, so that when the international financial crisis and economic turmoil, our country against pressure capacity is also stronger than the capitalist countries. Although to some extent, so that economic development has been hampered, as the appreciation of the yuan. But from the side view, it also makes the investment behavior of the national currency of the financial sector can be reduced. And the chances of our national currency, the financial crisis is due to a lower level of foreign exchange reserves and increasing decline of the inflation rate and formation.
  Second, Present the country temporarily does not make the debt crisis storm. In recent years the level of economic development of the domestic market continues to improve, in which the state with respect to the international level is still good. Debt repayment rate and retention rate low level state. So we sum up the possibility of short-term national debt crisis storm is relatively small.
  Third, The probability of domestic capital crisis stage is also low, the Government has adopted the policy of our country is to encourage the development of capital markets. In recent years, national governments are gradually standardize the supervision of the capital market, so the good development of the situation so that investors have more confidence, leaving them optimistic about the development of capital markets and securities investment market.
  Fourth, The stage of China faces more potential banking crisis. It's also currently the largest domestic financial security threats. We need to address the country's most pressing problem is the financial security as a focus of attention, as well as to further strengthen its preventive measures and to make supervision of. The most important reason leading to the development of the banking sector is facing a crisis of non-performing loans ratio insecurity, gradual decline in bank profitability and inadequate capital. At the moment, though our national government macro-control ability is superior to capitalist countries, the ability pressed against the financial turmoil and the crisis stronger than also, but for post-processing solutions and problem solving skills level of the financial crisis is still at a low level of state, which would further threaten the country's finances, and far-reaching. There are also accelerating in recent years, partly because of the commercial bank market rate caused.   3. the financial instability verification analysis of macroeconomic asymmetric impact on
  (1) Financial instability potentially unobservable common factor
  Finally got the relationship between the three financial variables is to establish synchronization and data analysis through the model mentioned earlier. After a series of data obtained after analysis of the results: three-year relationship between the variables of up to 89.7%, with higher synchronization and consistency. And this also proved affect the reference variable is due to the instability of the financial result, where the price of credit products for floating the greatest impact, and the duration of the financial system district system in a stable state than the long period of instability, it also shows the instability of many factors, but the intensity of the adjustment is not very high, into a stable state after the system area can be maintained for a long period of time.
  (2) Financial instability is the fundamental cause of the financial risk.
  Prior period financial risk or financial crisis, the financial system is still mired in "money managers dominated capitalism" model of development, which will allow financial institutions in credit conditions, low-risk, further use of the price of credit products that balance fluctuations to get supreme interests. The end result of this instability of the financial system gradually improved, instability factors are also gradually increasing. Such a situation is not conducive to the development of the financial industry, and not only after reaching a certain degree of social market economy will suffer a serious blow, it will further lead to the loss of financial benefits and many other multi-level, thereby triggering the financial crisis.
  (3) Asymmetric Effect financial instability on the macroeconomic
  Instability of the financial system is the direct cause of economic fluctuations and a substantial lift, leading to economic stress in the financial industry continued to grow. For further verification, we are three kinds of real estate prices and credit products and equities into the model, its overall comprehensive analysis. When socio-economic growth can occur in two high growth and moderate growth trend. At the same time these two trends is symmetrical. In reference variable degree of influence on the analysis, moderate growth is influenced by the degree of growth than the low height. And the data showed that the instability of the financial system of our country to a certain extent, can play a role in promoting socio-economic growth, it is not for the financial industry is completely negative. But when such a degree of economic growth in depressed state, promoting the role is not prominent, and social and economic development benefits and no positive role in promoting. In summary therefore, the instability of the financial system for macroeconomic growth will exhibit asymmetry influence.   4. The Financial Impact Of Macroeconomic Instability
  (1) Financial instability led to the financial risks
  Learn from the example of the financial crisis in some capitalist countries has undergone, the financial crisis which broke out in the early stage of the financial system has been in a highly unstable state. Further in-depth analysis of the data, the choice of financial institutions at this stage to put more focus on the pursuit of corporate interests, and for the prevention and supervision of financial risk but did not pay attention, resulting in increased financial supervision and risk factors growing. Increasing these factors led to the financial instability, once the system is not affordable range reached, the system can not accommodate these uncertainties, followed by the outbreak of the financial crisis. Under the current conditions of economic globalization, a large body of economic crisis tends to bring a global impact. Comprehensive China's actual situation, the interbank market is the largest financial risks at this stage. China's capital market and money market including External debt basically in a relatively stable state, economists do not predict a crisis in the short term. But economists believe that at this stage the bank market is the largest financial risk, because it has been in a state of instability. The first is the development of SMEs make loans rate increased loan rate increased the lead to further increase in NPLs. Bank funds already in short supply, if it is this phenomenon, the consequences will be disastrous. In addition to funding the majority of domestic banks are relatively scarce, it is important for banks, if it is short-term shortages, appear in the financial industry, this phenomenon is normal. Once the banks are experiencing a shortage of long-term funds, the bank would certainly be running a variety of constraints and limitations, there would be no development. Besides domestic commercial banks have been restricted by the national government, more limited, although the upgrade banking reform has been deepening its economic benefits but compared with developed countries, our country is still bank at a low level. Furthermore, the current state of the Government's main control measures for the banking crisis of the state financial allocations, so that corrective measures can only alleviate the current situation, does not solve the root of the problem, and the cost of such measures is very high, once the country can not afford this enormous financial funds, and banks   Instability has also accumulated to a certain extent, our country is very vulnerable to a financial crisis.
  (2) The impact of financial instability on the macroeconomic is asymmetrical
  In general, the intensity of the role of financial instability have asymmetric macroeconomic impact, and presents two prominent characteristics, and in two of the characteristics exhibited by financial instability is not the same.
  In recent years, the domestic economic growth and other related financial market data analysis, financial stability has periodic changes in 2008, when the subprime crisis, China's financial instability has reached the highest level in history.
  After the subprime mortgage crisis, the volatility is very large, and now basically maintained in a stable state. But our economy is not in a situation of steady growth, but the performance has two high growth and moderate growth, and financial instability in the influence of these two manifestations are not consistent ,, in the case of high economic growth financial instability effect on the economy to be more obvious. Through data analysis and comparison when found to be highly economic growth, good body when economic trends, financial instability and economic growth are positively correlated, that is,
  To a certain extent this instability will promote economic development, but economic development as gentle, socio-economic doldrums, the financial instability and will not have a positive role in promoting economic development, and therefore to say that financial instability macroeconomic has an asymmetric impact.
  5. Responding To The Financial Instability
  (1) Reduce the rate of inflation
  Keeping inflation low state to make long-term financial stability in the state, and also very beneficial for socio-economic growth, far-reaching. Monetary policy promulgated by the state related to the implementation of socio-economic lets and response.
  Appropriate for the amount of money in circulation to reduce the inflation rate to be stable if, then price stability can be guaranteed. This level of quality of life to improve residents also have great significance and value. Present RMB in the international financial markets is in appreciation of the state, if long-term to maintain this state, largely negative impact on economic growth. So governments need stability of the RMB exchange rate against foreign currencies. National government agencies in order to reduce the rate of inflation, prices will stabilize within a reasonable range, so as to formulate the corresponding inflation rate, further target control. While the implementation of appropriate monetary policy and interest rate policy to achieve this goal.   (2) Strengthen the regulation of financial markets
  Volatility in financial markets is also an important factor in financial stability. In the financial markets regulate their own strong supervision, control over the financial stability objective can be achieved. Domestic financial industry started behind the United States and Europe, reflected in the way of financial regulation and financial architecture. So the domestic urgent need for the current financial regulatory model to make appropriate adjustments. The first step is before the separate regulatory model to adjust and change. It can allow the development of financial markets to promote mixed supervision by the way. And national governments also need to learn advanced Western regulatory experience to improve our regulatory approach. Stage of China has not yet set a specific financial regulatory agencies, which also is not conducive to the overall risk of financial market regulation, so our set regulatory authorities but also to ensure the level of quality and regulatory personnel.
  (3) Improve the financial markets
  Perfection of the financial markets is also an important measure to maintain financial instability. The first step is to effectively regulate a reasonable daily behavior of financial market participants through appropriate legal regulations. And the relevant regulatory authorities but also to carry out supervision and enforcement intensify. If the harm occurs the affected units and individuals to the normal operation of financial markets be severely punished. In addition the country's financial business also focuses on building personal and business credit system, its purpose is to facilitate financial institutions to individuals and companies of credit test. The establishment of such inspection measures will be conducive not only to minimize the rate of non-performing loans, thereby improving the bank's management level and economic benefits. There are also in favor of transparency in financial markets, so that the interests of both transactions is guaranteed. Finally, the establishment of appropriate risk assessment and prediction, prevention mechanisms, if the financial turmoil may be the first financial companies to resolve them, thus reducing the economic losses. Also, note that financial restructuring, focused on the financial balance of urban and rural areas and innovative financial products.
  (4) Improve the efficiency of empirical research
  Reduce the efficiency of empirical research will be extended to the balanced development of the financial sustainable economic growth Case Study of. On the contrary, empirical research to enhance the efficiency of research can be shortened in fact permit. First, to enhance the efficiency of research can enhance the overall quality and professional skills empirical research staff, and by raising a person empirical research and analysis of the efficiency in the processing unit time, can have a significant effect. Second, according to big data and cloud storage technology, the use of high-efficiency computer capabilities to achieve the data analysis and empirical research work, which makes the brain have been liberated. Since the purpose of empirical research and implementation tasks is not the same. It must first clear the purpose of empirical research, based on sustainable economic growth can be characterized, and then go into research institutions and inadequate financial services now exist, on the other hand, can draw up proposals for empirical research is planned to avoid the course of the study detours, leading to the results obtained blurred.   6. Conclusion
  Domestic economic development is in turn crucial stage of transformation and upgrading. This period are extremely vulnerable to external influences. Macroeconomic affected non-symmetrical, and the appropriate factor of instability will promote social and economic development. Too many unstable factors it will hinder social and economic development, but also induced a serious financial risk. Therefore, the government needs to implement appropriate monetary and administrative policies in order to maintain macroeconomic stability, development, and ultimately to promote economic development. Words and short, empirical research exists to match poor, weak substantive analysis, progress is slow, long cycle and other issues, they can conduct research activities through the balanced development of the financial and economic sustainable growth effect relationship between the status quo and two. According to the existing problems and make the appropriate preventive measures and solutions means to improve the efficiency of research certification, to promote sustainable economic development.
其他文献
Abstract:Since reform and opening up, Chinese sustained development of the national economy, has entered the row of middle-income countries.Throughout the course of development of the world, the vast
期刊
[摘 要] 大数据时代呈现出爆炸式增长的数据信息,并且云计算、数据挖掘的发展使得这些海量信息能够得到有效的集成和分析。管理会计本身就是为企业决策提供信息,其发展自然离不开大数据的支持。本文重在探讨大数据对管理会计的预测、决策、成本控制和绩效评价的影响,为管理会计的发展提供借鉴。  [关键词]大数据;预测与决策;成本控制;绩效评价  1大数据对管理会计预测的影响  预测是决策的基础。在当前复杂多变的
期刊
[摘 要] 在经济全球化不断进步的今天,我国企业在“走出去”的战略领导下使得企业跨国并购的规模和频率快速增长。企业并购活动越来越多,有许多风险可以导致企业并购失败,最后都通过并购成本反映在并购的财务风险上。本文将对企业跨国并购过程中潜在的财务风险进行探讨,并分析如何有效防范跨国并购的财务风险。  [關键词]跨国并购;财务风险;风险防范  1引言  进入二十一世纪后,我国企业受到世界经济一体化的冲击
期刊
[摘 要] 注册会计师实施审计是为了对企业不同层次的认定不存在由于人为或系统原因导致的重大错报提供合理保证。2006年2月15日,财政部对审计准则进行修订,将审计风险模型重新定义为:审计风险=重大错报风险×检查风险。现代审计方法中被应用最多的是风险导向审计。注册会计师需要认识并评价各个层次的重大错报风险,并在此基础上确定进一步审计程序的性质,时间和范围,并根据审计结果出具恰当的审计报告。本文以Y公
期刊
[摘 要] 近年来,伴随着经济水平的提高,财务控制成为维护市场秩序的有效途径。从行政事业单位角度上来看,相对科学、合理的财务控制机制是提高工作效率,预防财务风险的关键,故根据财务控制实际情况制定控制方案是现阶段对会计工作的基本要求。下面,本文从行政事业单位财务内部控制问题出发,总结强化财务控制的措施。  [关键词]行政事业单位;财务;内部控制;措施  1 行政事业单位财务内部控制问题  1.1 内
期刊
[摘 要] 从我国税制改革角度来看,“营改增”是一项非常重要的减税举措。然而,从企业的角度来看,在“营改增”的背景下,存在税负增加的情况。只有针对“营改增”实施后企业税负增加原因采取相应的措施,企业税负增加的情况才能够得到缓解,才能实现提高“营改增”制度的实施效益、促进企业稳健发展的目的。本文在分析“营改增”后部分企业税负增加原因的基础上,进一步提出了相应的解决对策,希望以此为部分企业解决税负增加
期刊
[摘 要] 事业单位的财会工作因为实施的新预算法产生了很大的改变,并促使事业单位的财会工作更加有序、规范的进行,提高财会工作效率。因此,本文对事业单位财会工作在新预算法实施下的影响进行分析,并对事业单位财会工作的对策进行探讨,以保证事业单位财会工作的有效开展。  [关键词]新预算法;事业单位;财会工作;影响及对策  事业单位的财会预算在新预算法的要求下,其应当对外公开预算信息,实现透明化的财务预算
期刊
[摘 要] 目前我国行政事业单位会计内部控制与其他一般的企业会计内部控制相比较,它还比较薄弱,明显的存在着许多缺陷和不足。这些状况不仅严重影响了行政事业单位的日常运转,同时也会给一些国有资产造成一定程度的损失。笔者就结合目前一般的行政事业单位会计内部控制存在的一些问题进行研究,并总结出了加强行政事业单位会计内部控制的有效措施,为行政事业单位工作人员提供借鉴与参考。  [关键词]行政事业单位;会计内
期刊
[摘 要] 财务会计为管理会计的来源,通过管理会计工作职责的发挥,促进企业整体经济效益的提高。本文在概述管理会计含义的基础上,分析企业“降成本、补短板、调结构”过程中发挥管理会计作用的实践方法,旨在为企业实际应用管理会计提供参考。  [关键词]管理会计;降成本;补短板;调结构;实践  国外企业应用管理会计的时间比较早,而且已经取得了较大的成功,许多成绩举世瞩目。与国外相比,我国企业开始应用的时间比
期刊
[摘 要] 在经济迅速发展的今天,制造业的发展面临许多新的问题,现金管理就是其中之一,现金管理是制造业财务管理的核心。本文首先分析制造业中现金管理的发展现状;然后分析其原因;最后,针对不同的问题分别提出行之有效的应对策略,为改善制造业现金管理提供有益的参考。  [关键词]现金;制造業;管理  1制造业现金管理的现状  1.1库存现金限额问题不明确  根据现金条例有关规定,企业的现金限额的提取数量,
期刊