论文部分内容阅读
在三个基本假设的基础上,对历史数据拟合得到乌鲁木齐市小麦关于日照、降水、生产效率指数的产量函数,应用正态耦合函数估计日照和降水的二元分布,借助计算机随机模拟得到产量估计数据,以估计的产量均值作为趋势产量,最终得到保障程度80%,90%,100%时的纯费率分别为0.23%,0.83%,3.26%。本研究中方法的应用旨在为农作物区域产量保险费率厘定提供一个新的选择途径。
Based on the three basic assumptions, the yield function of wheat on sunshine, precipitation and production efficiency index in Urumqi was fitted to the historical data. The normal coupling function was used to estimate the binary distribution of sunshine and precipitation. The yield Estimated data, taking the average of the estimated output as the trend output, the net rates of 80%, 90% and 100% are 0.23%, 0.83% and 3.26% respectively. The application of the method in this study aims to provide a new alternative approach for determining the rate of crop yield insurance in a crop area.