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在分析1991~2011年中国西瓜进出口贸易现状基础上,将用于分析多产品和多市场的恒定市场份额模型变形为单一产品恒定市场份额模型,分3期分析了1997~2011年中国西瓜出口增长因素。结果表明:市场规模效应、市场分布效应和竞争力效应在不同时期对中国西瓜出口的作用是不同的,与前一期相比,市场规模效应在第2期起到了抑制作用,第3期起到了促进作用,竞争力效应则截然相反;市场分布效应始终为正,但贡献呈下降趋势。
Based on the analysis of the current status of China’s watermelon import and export trade from 1991 to 2011, the constant market share model used to analyze multi-product and multi-market was transformed into the single product constant market share model. The watermelon export from 1997 to 2011 Growth factors. The results show that the effects of market size, market distribution and competitiveness in different periods on China’s watermelon export are different. Compared with the previous period, the market size effect has been restrained in the second period. From the third period To the promotion role, the opposite effect of competitiveness; market distribution effect is always positive, but the contribution of a downward trend.