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近几十年来,黄土高原昕水河流域实测径流量减少显著,对区域生态环境及用水安全造成严重影响。采用水文模拟途径,还原了天然径流量系列,在此基础上,定量评估了气候要素和水土保持等人类活动对河川径流量的影响。结果表明,考虑融雪过程的水量平衡模型对昕水河流域径流量具有较好的模拟效果,率定期及检验期Nash-Sutcliffe确定性系数均在70%以上,模拟的相对误差也小于3%。径流量系列自1966年发生了较为明显的变化,1966—2010年流域径流量深较前期减少29.2mm,其中,包括流域水土保持措施的人类活动对河川径流量变化的影响约站49.3%,气候要素变化的影响略微偏高,约占50.7%。因此,在未来流域治理及生态文明建设中,气候要素变化对流域水文水资源的影响必须引起足够的重视。
In recent decades, the measured runoff in the Xin Shui River basin on the Loess Plateau has been significantly reduced, which has a serious impact on the regional ecological environment and water safety. Based on the hydrological simulation approach, a series of natural runoff was restored. Based on this, a series of quantitative assessments of the impact of human activities such as climate and water and soil conservation on river runoff were conducted. The results show that the water balance model considering the snowmelt process has a good simulation effect on the runoff in the Xinshuihe River Basin. The deterministic coefficients of Nash-Sutcliffe are both above 70% and the relative errors of the simulations are less than 3%. The series of runoff have undergone significant changes since 1966. The runoff of the basin decreased by 29.2mm from 1966 to the previous period, with 49.3% of the total impact on the runoff of the river including the human activities of soil and water conservation measures. The climate The impact of changes in factors is slightly higher, accounting for about 50.7%. Therefore, in the future basin management and ecological civilization construction, the impact of climate change on the hydrology and water resources in the basin must be given sufficient attention.