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2009年的中国汽车市场会怎么样?带着这个问题,笔者至少问过二十余位车企的高管、政府的官员以及业内的专家。综合各方在公开场合的见解:2009年的车市将会是低开,在上半年都可能是负增长,而下半年有望复苏,使全年保持微弱的增长。这听起来还算乐观。但在私下,老总们在表达完乐观之后,往往会反问一句:你们如何看待2009年下半年的车市?说得直白点,车企们对于车市2009年下半年的预计并不确定,即便认为会复苏,也说不清复苏的力度和时间点。就像股票一样,绝大部分人还坚信会回到6 000点,但啥时候能够反弹就听天由命了。
2009 Chinese car market will happen? With this problem, I asked at least 20 car-level executives, government officials and industry experts. Taking all public opinions into consideration, the automobile market in 2009 will be opened lower and may be negative growth in the first half of the year, while the recovery in the second half of the year is expected to maintain a slight growth throughout the year. This sounds pretty optimistic. However, privately, veterans expressed optimism often tended to ask: How do you think of the auto market in the second half of 2009? To put it plainly, the car companies are not sure about the auto market in the second half of 2009 and even think Will recover, but also can not tell the strength and timing of the recovery. Like the stock, most people still believe they will be back to 6,000, but when they can rebound, they will be resigned.