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2006年的外贸形势估计依然是高速增长,预计进出口贸易增长仍将超过20%,出口增长依然快于进口增长,贸易顺差仍将超过1000亿美元。我国贸易顺差显现出以下特点:第一,贸易顺差主要集中在加工贸易领域,加工贸易顺差综合了一般贸易和其他贸易方式的顺差或逆差额,决定贸易顺差总额的变化。第二,贸易顺差集中在外资企业。这和我国长期的招商引资政策有很大关联。第三,我国贸易顺差来源地较为集中,主要在欧美地区。从理论上说,贸易顺差是储蓄大于投资的必然结果,表现为国内资源的流出。从我国宏观经济的实际情况来看,我国的投资率很高,但储蓄率更高。例如,2005年全国新增的储蓄存款2万多亿元人民币,
The foreign trade situation in 2006 is still estimated to be rapid growth. It is estimated that the growth of import and export trade will still exceed 20%, and the growth of exports will still be faster than that of imports. The trade surplus will still exceed 100 billion US dollars. China’s trade surplus has the following characteristics: First, the trade surplus is mainly concentrated in the processing trade sector, and the surplus in processing trade accounts for the surplus or surplus of general trade and other trade modes, and determines the change in the total trade surplus. Second, the trade surplus is concentrated in foreign-funded enterprises. This has a lot to do with our country’s long-term investment promotion policies. Third, China has a relatively concentrated source of trade surplus, mainly in Europe and the United States. In theory, the trade surplus is the inevitable result of saving more than investment, manifested as the outflow of domestic resources. Judging from the actual situation of China’s macro economy, China’s investment rate is high, but the savings rate is higher. For example, in 2005, the country’s new savings deposits were more than 2 trillion yuan.