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针对岩爆烈度预测问题,采用物元矩阵和理想点法进行了相关研究。在综合考虑影响岩爆发生的主要因素的基础上,以影响岩爆烈度的围岩最大切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度比σθσc、岩石单轴抗压强度与岩石单轴抗拉强度比σcσt和弹性能量指数wet等三个常用影响因子为评价指标,并且通过改进的层次分析法和熵值法相结合的组合赋权法来评价各个指标的影响程度,构建了岩爆烈度的物元矩阵,以靠近岩爆烈度理想点的远近程度为判断标准,基于此原理建立了岩爆烈度预测的物元-理想点模型。最后,将该模型应用于秦岭隧道、灵宝东峪矿区和冬瓜山铜矿的岩爆烈度预测中,结果表明,该模型的预测结果与实际岩爆烈度基本一致,验证了该模型的可行性。同时,将本文模型和ANN法、Bayes法以及DDA法进行比较,预测结果大致相同,且该模型不需要任何先验知识,求解过程完全由样本驱动,可操作性较强,进一步证明了该模型的合理性和有效性。
Aiming at the problem of rockburst intensity prediction, the matter-element matrix and the ideal point method are used to study. Based on comprehensive consideration of the main factors influencing the rockburst, the relationship between the maximum tangential stress of rock mass and the rock uniaxial compressive strength ratio σθσc, the uniaxial compressive strength of rock and the uniaxial tensile strength ratio of rock σcσt and elastic energy index wet are the three commonly used influencing factors for the evaluation index, and through the combination of improved analytic hierarchy process and entropy method to evaluate the impact of each index, the matter-element matrix of rockburst intensity is constructed Based on this principle, a matter-element-ideal point model for rockburst intensity prediction is established. Finally, the model is applied to the prediction of rockburst intensity of Qinling Tunnel, Lingbao Dongyu Mine and Dongguashan Copper Mine. The results show that the prediction results of this model are basically consistent with the actual rockburst intensity, and the feasibility of the model is verified . At the same time, comparing the model with ANN method, Bayes method and DDA method, the prediction results are roughly the same, and the model does not need any prior knowledge, the solution process is completely sample-driven and the operability is strong, which further proves the model The rationality and effectiveness.