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基尼系数是现行较为通用的衡量一国收入分配差距的指标,利用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)预测模型,建立起对我国收入分配差距的预测模型,得到2005年基尼系数的预测值0.471,进而建立精度更高的新陈代谢模型,得到2006—2010年的基尼系数预测值,结果表明到2010年,基尼系数有可能临近0.5,基尼系数依然是攀升的,从而分配差距的扩大趋势依未改变,但增长幅度缓慢而平稳,这为当前及今后几年经济发展和调节收入分配差距的政策制定提供了一定的参考.
The Gini coefficient is a more commonly used indicator to measure a country’s income distribution gap. By using the GM (1,1) forecasting model in gray system, a forecasting model of the income distribution gap in China is established. The forecast value of Gini coefficient in 2005 is 0.471 , And then establish a more accurate metabolic model to obtain the Gini coefficient forecast value from 2006 to 2010, the results show that by 2010, the Gini coefficient may be close to 0.5, the Gini coefficient is still rising, so the distribution gap expansion trend unchanged , But the growth rate has been slow and steady. This will provide some reference for the policy formulation of economic development and adjustment of the income distribution gap in the current and next few years.