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在低碳电力调度准则下,基于考虑减排技术及其协同效应对低碳负荷需求的影响与电网公司购电的有限理性学习过程,建立了发电商采用3种低碳技术组合应用时的纵向合作减排的随机微分对策模型。运用汉密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼方程分别求得了Stackelberg博弈和合作博弈下均衡的减排技术投入、稳定的购电电量期望与方差以及Stackelberg博弈下最优的减排支付比例。考察了发电商减排技术的对称性及其应用数量对反馈均衡结果的影响,并对此两种博弈结构进行了比较分析。运用基于双向加权Rubinstein-Stahl讨价还价模型的利润共享契约使得决策系统达到协调,并将模型拓展到多种减排技术投入下的合作减排模型。研究发现:在一定条件和范围内,减排投入提高电网公司购电电量,同时发电商为此所带来的风险增大;合作博弈更适于优化电力市场电源结构,顺应低碳电力调度政策的导向;最优的减排技术应用、稳定的购电电量期望与方差以及系统均衡利润都与发电商选择的低碳技术投资效率、技术之间的协同作用以及数量正相关。
Under the low-carbon power schedule, based on considering the effect of emission reduction technology and its synergistic effect on the demand of low-carbon load and the limited rationality learning process of grid company purchasing power, the vertical Stochastic Differential Game Model for Cooperative Emission Reduction. The Hamiltonian-Jacobian-Bellman equation was used to obtain the balanced emission reduction technology investment, the stable power purchase expectation and variance, and the optimal proportion of emission reduction payment under the Stackelberg game under the Stackelberg game and the cooperative game respectively. The symmetry of emission reduction technologies of power generation companies and their effects on the feedback equilibrium results are investigated. The two game structures are compared and analyzed. Using the profit-sharing contract based on bidirectional weighted Rubinstein-Stahl bargaining model, the decision-making system is coordinated and the model is extended to the cooperative emission reduction model under various investment in emission reduction technologies. The research finds that: under certain conditions and scope, investment in emission reduction increases the purchasing power of grid companies, meanwhile, the risk brought by the generators increases; the cooperative game is more suitable for optimizing power market power structure and conform to the low-carbon power dispatching policy . The application of the optimal emission reduction technology, the stable electricity demand expectancy and variance, and the system equilibrium profit are all positively related to the investment efficiency of low carbon technology, the synergy between technologies and the quantity selected by the electricity suppliers.