论文部分内容阅读
针对现有煤矿重大危险源风险评估方法的不足,结合风险特征的多维性,提出了包含风险因素重要度、风险发生可能性、风险后果3个参数的三维风险分析模型。在煤矿重大危险源影响因素相关研究的基础上,以3类危险源为理论基础,构建煤矿重大危险源风险分析层次结构模型。考虑风险影响因素难以精确量化的问题,采用模糊层次分析法确定各层指标权重,并以三角模糊数描述风险概率和风险后果。最后,以某煤矿顶板危险源为例,测试该方法的有效性和准确性。结果表明,相较于综合评价的二维风险模型而言,三维风险模型考虑了风险发生概率,使风险控制措施更具针对性。该方法有助于煤矿企业制定合理的重大危险源风险管理和控制措施。
Aiming at the insufficiency of existing risk assessment methods for major hazard sources in coal mines and combining with the multi-dimensionality of risk characteristics, a three-dimensional risk analysis model including three factors: the importance of risk factors, the possibility of occurrence of risks and the consequences of risks, is proposed. Based on the related research on the influential factors of major hazard sources in coal mines, the risk analysis hierarchy model of major hazard sources in coal mines is constructed on the basis of three types of hazard sources. Considering the difficulty of accurately quantifying the risk factors, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of each index, and the triangular fuzzy number is used to describe the risk probability and risk consequence. Finally, the hazard of a coal mine roof is taken as an example to test the validity and accuracy of the method. The results show that compared with the two-dimensional risk model of comprehensive evaluation, the three-dimensional risk model considers the probability of risk occurrence and makes the risk control measures more specific. This method can help coal mining enterprises to formulate reasonable risk management and control measures for major dangerous sources.