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我们使用Nest决策支持系统中的耦合模型,评估海洋生态系统对通过各种管理选择引起的外来负荷变化的反应。模型涉及所有7个主要海盆和波罗的海的整个流域。在与赫尔辛基委员会的密切合作下,开发了一系列的未来情景,来了解改善废水处理和粪肥处理、无磷洗涤剂和较低强度的土地利用和家畜的可能作用。废水处理的改善和无磷洗涤剂在整个区域的使用,将明显地减少磷的负荷,并改善海洋环境,尤其是蓝藻细菌藻华的发生。但是,波罗的海仍是富营养的,而为了减少其它影响,必须实行大量减少氮的排放。在这些情景下只能通过强烈地改变土地利用方式来实现这一点。在最后的情景中,我们把所有农田的50%变成草地,实行高效率的废水处理和在洗涤剂中禁用磷。这将会大大地减少初级生产量和缺氧底层的扩大,增加富营养化最严重的海盆水的透明度,以及从根本上消灭蓝藻细菌藻华的大规模泛滥。
We use the coupling model in Nest Decision Support Systems to assess the response of marine ecosystems to changes in external loads caused by various management options. The model covers the entire basin of all seven major basins and the Baltic Sea. In close cooperation with the Helsinki Commission, a series of future scenarios have been developed to understand the possible role of wastewater treatment and manure treatment, phosphorus-free detergents and lower-intensity land-use and livestock. The improvement of wastewater treatment and the use of non-phosphorus detergent in the whole area will obviously reduce the load of phosphorus and improve the marine environment, especially the cyanobacterial bacterial algal bloom. However, the Baltic Sea is still eutrophic, and in order to reduce other impacts, it is necessary to implement a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions. In these scenarios this can only be achieved by drastically changing the way land is used. In the final scenario, we turned 50% of all farmland into grassland, practiced efficient wastewater treatment and disabled phosphorus in detergents. This will significantly reduce primary production and undersea expansion, increase transparency of the most eutrophic basin waters, and substantially eliminate the massive spread of cyanobacterial algal blooms.