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在市场经济的社会生产活动中,我们常常需要对许多问题进行决策,例如:对某一地区是否要进行房地产开发;某一产品是否要进行大规模批量生产;某地区是否需要设立一个商店,等等。在对这些问题进行决策的同时,我们往往会发现有许多决策者自己无法控制的随机因素存在,这样我们就会想到先进行一些抽样调查,在调查的基础上再作出决策,因为显然有信息的决策要比没有信息的决策明智而可靠得多。为此本文对同样的决策问题,讨论经由抽样获取有关总体状态额外信息后,如何应用Bayes方法,使这些信息帮助决策者作出更正确的决策。
In the social productive activities of the market economy, we often need to make decisions on many issues, such as whether or not to conduct real estate development in a certain area; whether a certain product is to be mass-produced; whether a store needs to be set up in a certain area; Wait. While making decisions on these issues, we tend to find that there are many random factors beyond the control of policymakers themselves, so that we may think of conducting some sample surveys and making decisions based on the investigation, because it is clear that there is information Decision-making is far smarter and more reliable than decision-making without information. To this end, we apply the Bayes method to the same decision-making questions and discuss how to apply the Bayes method to obtain more information about the overall state through sampling, so that these information can help decision makers to make more correct decisions.