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“One day, when I’m old, I may not be able to provide for myself....”That’s a song Li Jianjun loves best, and every so often he would worry about his pension life whenever he hears the song.
Officials from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS) have repeatedly emphasized that China’s pension fund won’t run dry, but still Li feels insecure about his future and retirement. Li favors the words of experts.
Zheng Bingwen, Director of the World Social Security Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), told the media that in 2011, Chinese employees paid 2.5 trillion yuan ($393.7 billion) into their pension accounts, but less than 300 billion yuan ($47.24 billion) was ready for payment.
This is why Li and millions of others worry.
Li, 35, has worked for 11 years at a current monthly pay of 4,000 yuan ($629.92). Each month he pays 8 percent of his average monthly wage from the previous year to his individual pension account. Li’s employer also pays 20 percent of his average monthly wage to a social collection fund.
The social collection fund and individual account are the two components of China’s pension fund system.
“Now the shortfall in the individual accounts are so enormous, and I’d like to know whether the shortfall can be made up and whether my pension would be affected after my retirement,” Li said.
The MOHRSS, however, has denied the shortfall exists. According to the ministry’s figures, at the end of 2011 the national pension fund had 1.9 trillion yuan ($299.21 billion) available.
“The endowment insurance fund has more incomes than expenditures, and currently there is no shortfall of the pension fund,” said Yin Chengji, spokesman for the MOHRSS.
The “deficit” denied by the MOHRSS means that cash flow of the pension fund system, or withdrawal of pensions faces no problem at the moment. From the incomes and expenditures of the pension fund system, the MOHRSS statement conforms to the actual situation. According to a report released by the National Audit Office on August 2, in 2011 the national pension fund system registered 1.56 trillion yuan ($245.67 billion) in total incomes and 1.14 trillion yuan ($179.53 billion) in total expenditures. The aggregate surplus stood at 1.85 trillion yuan ($291.34 billion) at the end of the year.
The current surplus makes people who withdraw pensions now feel eased, but the shortfall of the national pension fund will not be covered by the current surplus. At present, the number of working people is larger than that of the retired, so the number of people paying the pension fund is larger than that of those withdrawing pensions. Also thanks to the fiscal subsidies, the shortfall is not obvious. Once the employment situation changes, for example, the aging process accelerates or there is serious economic recession, the problem of pension fund shortfall will break out severely.
What deficit?
China currently operates a multiple-track pension system. Pensions of people working for government agencies and public institutions are granted by government funds; employees of urban enterprises are subject to the pension fund system composed of individual accounts and social collected funds; and farmers participate in the new-type social endowment insurance system that was established in 2009. The basic social pension for farmers set by the Central Government is 55 yuan ($8.66) per person per month, and local governments can increase the standard in accordance with local conditions.
At present, the deficit is in the pension fund system for urban employees set up in 1996. At that time, China was deep into the market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises, allowing for a market-oriented endowment insurance system to be adopted.
At that time, there were more than 30 million retirees from enterprises. Before the establishment of the endowment insurance system, enterprise employees did not need to pay for their endowment insurance. Therefore in the pension fund system, there are no individual accounts for these retirees, and their pensions all come from social collected funds. However, social collected funds are not enough to distribute pensions, so many local governments have to divert funds from individual accounts.
China tried to solve its pension problem by diverting funds from individual accounts, but to little effect. At the end of 2011, only 300 billion yuan in the individual accounts were payable, a shortfall of 2.2 trillion yuan($349.2 billion) compared with 2.5 trillion yuan ($396.8 billion) paid by employees to their individual accounts. The shortfall hasn’t been made up for. Instead, it has been expanding. According to CASS figures, from 2008 to 2010, the shortfall expanded from 1.4 trillion yuan ($220.47 billion) to 1.7 trillion yuan($267.72 billion), and from 2010 to 2011, the shortfall rose by 500 billion yuan ($78.74 billion).
Government coverage
At present, distribution of pensions for retirees from enterprises has not been affected, without default or reduction of payment.
The MOHRSS figures showed that by the end of 2011, China’s basic endowment insurance system had covered 261.14 million persons, and 62.99 million persons had been drawing pensions. In 2011, 1.14 trillion yuan($179.53 billion) of pensions were distributed, and the shortfall was made up for with government funds. Among the 1.56 trillion yuan of incomes of the national pension fund system, 208.24 billion yuan ($32.79 billion) was from government subsidies, accounting for 13.35 percent; employers paid 787.89 billion yuan ($124.08 billion), accounting for 50.49 percent; employees paid 494.23 billion yuan($77.83 billion), accounting for 31.67 percent; and interests and other incomes stood at 67 billion yuan ($10.55 billion), accounting for 4.49 percent.
“A few provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities once faced deficiency in pension payment, but with subsidies from the central and local governments, all the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities now have balanced incomes and expenditures,” said Yin.
According to the China Pension Report 2011 released by the CASS, from 1997, governments at various levels have granted 1.25 trillion yuan ($196.85 billion) in subsidies to the pension fund system. By the end of 2011, among the balance of the country’s pension funds, two thirds had come from the government budget. With fiscal subsidies, China’s pension fund system still has a surplus in terms of current cash flow. Many provinces and municipalities might have had difficulties in distributing pensions without government fiscal subsidies.
According to a research made by the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics of the CASS, under the present framework of the endowment insurance system, there will be inadequate cash to pay pensions by 2015. A report released by the World Bank shows that under the existing mechanism, China’s pension fund will have a shortfall of 9.15 trillion yuan ($1.44 trillion) by 2075.
Aging problem
The diminishing “demographic dividend” in China will also help widen the pension fund shortfall. This dividend refers to an increase in the rate of economic growth due to an increase of people of working age.
“With the process of the aging population, the number of retirees is growing and the time that they draw pensions becomes longer, which will enlarge the country’s expenditure in pensions. As the proportion of people of working age declines, the number of people paying to the pension fund system will decline. Hence the pension fund system will face difficulty in distributing pensions,” said Zheng.
Zheng said currently China’s pension fund system has a cash surplus, because every year there are millions of people joining the pension fund system. In 2011, revenue of China’s pension fund system grew by 25.9 percent, higher than the 20.9 percent growth of expenditure. But as the population ages, such advantage will no longer exist.
In the 1960s and 1970s, China experienced a baby boom. Now the baby boomers are in working age. After that, for the family planning policy, the birth rate began to drop. In 20 years when the people of working age now get old, the number of people paying to the pension fund will be smaller than that of those drawing pensions. Actually the impact of diminishing demographic dividend has already been seen now.
Research by the CASS shows that in 1978 each employee needed to provide for 0.603 minors and 0.081 seniors above 65 years old, and in 2006, the respective numbers were 0.255 and 0.127. From 2000 to 2010, China’s working age population increased by only 1 percent and it will stop increase by 2015, marking the vanishing point of China’s demographic dividend.
According to Zheng’s calculation, China’s basic endowment insurance system now covers 260 million people, with 190 million paying to the pension fund system and 63 million drawing pensions. This means three payers need to pay for pension of each drawer. As the aging process accelerates, two young workers have to provide for four or even five pensioners.
Besides, life expectancy of the Chinese people is rising. From 1980 to 2010, it rose by one year every five years. If the retirement age remains unchanged, the time of drawing pensions will be extended, intensifying the pressure for the pension fund system.
Wrong answer
Pressure on the pension fund system has forced discussion on the possibility of raising the retirement age.
The aging population is a challenge faced by the whole world. At present, people in the United States and Germany retire at 65-67 years old, but in China, men retire at 60 and women at 50 or 55.
The present policy of retirement age adopted by China was set in the 1970s. Forty years have passed, during which life expectancy of the Chinese people has risen by seven years, but the retirement age keeps unchanged.
According to the MOHRSS, if the retirement age is raised by five years, 20 billion yuan ($3.17 billion) of pension fund shortfall can be made up. Retiring later, a worker can pay longer into the pension fund system and draw more pensions after retirement.
However, just raising the retirement age is not enough to solve this growing pressure. Even raising the retirement age, till 2050 government fiscal subsidy to make up for pension fund shortfall will still account for 9.9 percent of the national budget each year. Moreover, compared with the present shortfall of 2.2 trillion yuan ($349.2 billion), making up for 20 billion yuan ($3.17 billion) of shortfall every year is peanuts and cannot change the fact that the shortfall is expanding.
Reform needed
Zheng said in the long run, China needs to reform its social security system. Without reforms, payment of pensions will be unsustainable.
Tang Jun, Secretary General of the Social Policy Research Center of the CASS, said the government should make proper middle- and long-term plans on the proportion of government subsidies in the pension fund system, the amount of incomes and expenditures of the pension fund and the methods to make up the shortfall so as to ensure reforms of the social security system.
Tang thought the government should now particularly consider, based on an accurate estimation of pension fund payers and the population of retirees, formulating different schemes such as raising the retirement age and transferring shares of listed state-owned enterprises.
At present, state-owned assets supervision and administration commissions hold 13.7 trillion yuan ($2.16 trillion) in shares of listed state-owned enterprises. If 80 percent of the shares are transferred to the social security system starting from 2013, together with the practice of raising the retirement age, China’s pension fund system will maintain surplus for 30 years. Incomes and expenditures of the pension fund system will keep balanced until 2050.
As for people’s appeals of reforming the endowment insurance system, Yin said the country has decided to steadily push forward reform of the pension system for employees of enterprises, government agencies and public institutions. The MOHRSS has been carrying out experiment in Shanxi and other four provinces and municipalities since 2009. In 2011 the Central Government issued guiding opinions on reforming the endowment insurance system of public institutions.
Yin said Shanxi and four other provinces and municipalities have made preparations for the reform, but because there are no supporting policies, detailed reforming measures have not been formulated. “We will join efforts with related departments to guide the five pilot provinces and municipalities to formulate detailed implementation schemes and supporting policies as soon as possible and report to the State Council in due course for approval,” said Yin.
Officials from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS) have repeatedly emphasized that China’s pension fund won’t run dry, but still Li feels insecure about his future and retirement. Li favors the words of experts.
Zheng Bingwen, Director of the World Social Security Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), told the media that in 2011, Chinese employees paid 2.5 trillion yuan ($393.7 billion) into their pension accounts, but less than 300 billion yuan ($47.24 billion) was ready for payment.
This is why Li and millions of others worry.
Li, 35, has worked for 11 years at a current monthly pay of 4,000 yuan ($629.92). Each month he pays 8 percent of his average monthly wage from the previous year to his individual pension account. Li’s employer also pays 20 percent of his average monthly wage to a social collection fund.
The social collection fund and individual account are the two components of China’s pension fund system.
“Now the shortfall in the individual accounts are so enormous, and I’d like to know whether the shortfall can be made up and whether my pension would be affected after my retirement,” Li said.
The MOHRSS, however, has denied the shortfall exists. According to the ministry’s figures, at the end of 2011 the national pension fund had 1.9 trillion yuan ($299.21 billion) available.
“The endowment insurance fund has more incomes than expenditures, and currently there is no shortfall of the pension fund,” said Yin Chengji, spokesman for the MOHRSS.
The “deficit” denied by the MOHRSS means that cash flow of the pension fund system, or withdrawal of pensions faces no problem at the moment. From the incomes and expenditures of the pension fund system, the MOHRSS statement conforms to the actual situation. According to a report released by the National Audit Office on August 2, in 2011 the national pension fund system registered 1.56 trillion yuan ($245.67 billion) in total incomes and 1.14 trillion yuan ($179.53 billion) in total expenditures. The aggregate surplus stood at 1.85 trillion yuan ($291.34 billion) at the end of the year.
The current surplus makes people who withdraw pensions now feel eased, but the shortfall of the national pension fund will not be covered by the current surplus. At present, the number of working people is larger than that of the retired, so the number of people paying the pension fund is larger than that of those withdrawing pensions. Also thanks to the fiscal subsidies, the shortfall is not obvious. Once the employment situation changes, for example, the aging process accelerates or there is serious economic recession, the problem of pension fund shortfall will break out severely.
What deficit?
China currently operates a multiple-track pension system. Pensions of people working for government agencies and public institutions are granted by government funds; employees of urban enterprises are subject to the pension fund system composed of individual accounts and social collected funds; and farmers participate in the new-type social endowment insurance system that was established in 2009. The basic social pension for farmers set by the Central Government is 55 yuan ($8.66) per person per month, and local governments can increase the standard in accordance with local conditions.
At present, the deficit is in the pension fund system for urban employees set up in 1996. At that time, China was deep into the market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises, allowing for a market-oriented endowment insurance system to be adopted.
At that time, there were more than 30 million retirees from enterprises. Before the establishment of the endowment insurance system, enterprise employees did not need to pay for their endowment insurance. Therefore in the pension fund system, there are no individual accounts for these retirees, and their pensions all come from social collected funds. However, social collected funds are not enough to distribute pensions, so many local governments have to divert funds from individual accounts.
China tried to solve its pension problem by diverting funds from individual accounts, but to little effect. At the end of 2011, only 300 billion yuan in the individual accounts were payable, a shortfall of 2.2 trillion yuan($349.2 billion) compared with 2.5 trillion yuan ($396.8 billion) paid by employees to their individual accounts. The shortfall hasn’t been made up for. Instead, it has been expanding. According to CASS figures, from 2008 to 2010, the shortfall expanded from 1.4 trillion yuan ($220.47 billion) to 1.7 trillion yuan($267.72 billion), and from 2010 to 2011, the shortfall rose by 500 billion yuan ($78.74 billion).
Government coverage
At present, distribution of pensions for retirees from enterprises has not been affected, without default or reduction of payment.
The MOHRSS figures showed that by the end of 2011, China’s basic endowment insurance system had covered 261.14 million persons, and 62.99 million persons had been drawing pensions. In 2011, 1.14 trillion yuan($179.53 billion) of pensions were distributed, and the shortfall was made up for with government funds. Among the 1.56 trillion yuan of incomes of the national pension fund system, 208.24 billion yuan ($32.79 billion) was from government subsidies, accounting for 13.35 percent; employers paid 787.89 billion yuan ($124.08 billion), accounting for 50.49 percent; employees paid 494.23 billion yuan($77.83 billion), accounting for 31.67 percent; and interests and other incomes stood at 67 billion yuan ($10.55 billion), accounting for 4.49 percent.
“A few provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities once faced deficiency in pension payment, but with subsidies from the central and local governments, all the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities now have balanced incomes and expenditures,” said Yin.
According to the China Pension Report 2011 released by the CASS, from 1997, governments at various levels have granted 1.25 trillion yuan ($196.85 billion) in subsidies to the pension fund system. By the end of 2011, among the balance of the country’s pension funds, two thirds had come from the government budget. With fiscal subsidies, China’s pension fund system still has a surplus in terms of current cash flow. Many provinces and municipalities might have had difficulties in distributing pensions without government fiscal subsidies.
According to a research made by the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics of the CASS, under the present framework of the endowment insurance system, there will be inadequate cash to pay pensions by 2015. A report released by the World Bank shows that under the existing mechanism, China’s pension fund will have a shortfall of 9.15 trillion yuan ($1.44 trillion) by 2075.
Aging problem
The diminishing “demographic dividend” in China will also help widen the pension fund shortfall. This dividend refers to an increase in the rate of economic growth due to an increase of people of working age.
“With the process of the aging population, the number of retirees is growing and the time that they draw pensions becomes longer, which will enlarge the country’s expenditure in pensions. As the proportion of people of working age declines, the number of people paying to the pension fund system will decline. Hence the pension fund system will face difficulty in distributing pensions,” said Zheng.
Zheng said currently China’s pension fund system has a cash surplus, because every year there are millions of people joining the pension fund system. In 2011, revenue of China’s pension fund system grew by 25.9 percent, higher than the 20.9 percent growth of expenditure. But as the population ages, such advantage will no longer exist.
In the 1960s and 1970s, China experienced a baby boom. Now the baby boomers are in working age. After that, for the family planning policy, the birth rate began to drop. In 20 years when the people of working age now get old, the number of people paying to the pension fund will be smaller than that of those drawing pensions. Actually the impact of diminishing demographic dividend has already been seen now.
Research by the CASS shows that in 1978 each employee needed to provide for 0.603 minors and 0.081 seniors above 65 years old, and in 2006, the respective numbers were 0.255 and 0.127. From 2000 to 2010, China’s working age population increased by only 1 percent and it will stop increase by 2015, marking the vanishing point of China’s demographic dividend.
According to Zheng’s calculation, China’s basic endowment insurance system now covers 260 million people, with 190 million paying to the pension fund system and 63 million drawing pensions. This means three payers need to pay for pension of each drawer. As the aging process accelerates, two young workers have to provide for four or even five pensioners.
Besides, life expectancy of the Chinese people is rising. From 1980 to 2010, it rose by one year every five years. If the retirement age remains unchanged, the time of drawing pensions will be extended, intensifying the pressure for the pension fund system.
Wrong answer
Pressure on the pension fund system has forced discussion on the possibility of raising the retirement age.
The aging population is a challenge faced by the whole world. At present, people in the United States and Germany retire at 65-67 years old, but in China, men retire at 60 and women at 50 or 55.
The present policy of retirement age adopted by China was set in the 1970s. Forty years have passed, during which life expectancy of the Chinese people has risen by seven years, but the retirement age keeps unchanged.
According to the MOHRSS, if the retirement age is raised by five years, 20 billion yuan ($3.17 billion) of pension fund shortfall can be made up. Retiring later, a worker can pay longer into the pension fund system and draw more pensions after retirement.
However, just raising the retirement age is not enough to solve this growing pressure. Even raising the retirement age, till 2050 government fiscal subsidy to make up for pension fund shortfall will still account for 9.9 percent of the national budget each year. Moreover, compared with the present shortfall of 2.2 trillion yuan ($349.2 billion), making up for 20 billion yuan ($3.17 billion) of shortfall every year is peanuts and cannot change the fact that the shortfall is expanding.
Reform needed
Zheng said in the long run, China needs to reform its social security system. Without reforms, payment of pensions will be unsustainable.
Tang Jun, Secretary General of the Social Policy Research Center of the CASS, said the government should make proper middle- and long-term plans on the proportion of government subsidies in the pension fund system, the amount of incomes and expenditures of the pension fund and the methods to make up the shortfall so as to ensure reforms of the social security system.
Tang thought the government should now particularly consider, based on an accurate estimation of pension fund payers and the population of retirees, formulating different schemes such as raising the retirement age and transferring shares of listed state-owned enterprises.
At present, state-owned assets supervision and administration commissions hold 13.7 trillion yuan ($2.16 trillion) in shares of listed state-owned enterprises. If 80 percent of the shares are transferred to the social security system starting from 2013, together with the practice of raising the retirement age, China’s pension fund system will maintain surplus for 30 years. Incomes and expenditures of the pension fund system will keep balanced until 2050.
As for people’s appeals of reforming the endowment insurance system, Yin said the country has decided to steadily push forward reform of the pension system for employees of enterprises, government agencies and public institutions. The MOHRSS has been carrying out experiment in Shanxi and other four provinces and municipalities since 2009. In 2011 the Central Government issued guiding opinions on reforming the endowment insurance system of public institutions.
Yin said Shanxi and four other provinces and municipalities have made preparations for the reform, but because there are no supporting policies, detailed reforming measures have not been formulated. “We will join efforts with related departments to guide the five pilot provinces and municipalities to formulate detailed implementation schemes and supporting policies as soon as possible and report to the State Council in due course for approval,” said Yin.