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目的筛选出湖南省洪涝相关的敏感性法定传染病,为进一步定量研究洪涝事件对我国人群的健康影响提供线索。方法选定湖南省2007年6月上旬发生的洪涝事件进行分析,通过Poisson两样本率比较方法,在控制洪涝事件对传染病的季节效应和滞后效应基础上,以横断面分析比较暴露期洪涝区与非洪涝区法定传染病的发病情况,以纵向对比分析比较洪涝区洪涝期与其历史对照期法定传染病的发病情况,选取横、纵向比较分析中发病风险均增加且有统计学意义的传染病为敏感性疾病。结果人群在洪涝暴露后,细菌性痢疾、流行性感冒、其他感染性腹泻病、乙脑分别在旬滞后期lag2、lag3、lag3、lag4达到最大归因分值(AR%),分别为34.1%、17.0%、59.8%、95.6%。结论细菌性痢疾、流行性感冒、其他感染性腹泻、乙脑为湖南省洪涝相关的敏感性传染病,洪涝暴露导致前三者人群发病风险的增加可持续至洪涝后近1个月,对乙脑的影响持续时间更为长久。
Objective To screen the sensitive infectious diseases of infectious diseases related to floods in Hunan Province and provide clues for further quantitative study on the health effects of floods on Chinese people. Methods The flood events occurred in the early June 2007 in Hunan Province were analyzed. Based on the Poisson two-sample rate comparison, the seasonal effects and lag effects of flood events on infectious diseases were compared and the cross-sectional analysis was conducted to compare the flood-prone areas And the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in non-flood-prone areas. The comparative analysis was made between the incidence of legal infectious diseases in the flood season of the floodplain and the historical control period by vertical comparison analysis. The infectious diseases with increased incidence of risk in the transverse and longitudinal comparative analyzes were selected and statistically significant As a sensitive disease. Results After the floods were exposed, bacillary dysentery, influenza, other infectious diarrheal diseases and Japanese encephalitis reached the maximum attributable fraction (AR%) of lag2, lag3, lag3, and lag4 in late lag period, reaching 34.1% , 17.0%, 59.8%, 95.6%. Conclusions Bacillary dysentery, influenza, other infectious diarrhea and JE are sensitive flood-related infectious diseases in Hunan Province. The increase of the risk of flooding caused by flooding in the first three groups can last up to one month after flood, The impact of the brain lasts longer.