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引入投影降维思想,构建河南省农业旱灾风险综合评价指标体系,应用投影寻踪模型进行农业旱灾风险评价。结果表明:河南省18地市的农业旱灾风险总体上呈现出西南到东北风险性降低的空间特征;1988-2012年间农业旱灾的综合风险总体上呈现下降态势,综合抗旱能力稳步提升,危险性波动最大,脆弱性波动最小,暴露性则呈现出阶梯下降的特点,各功能层对旱灾风险的影响从大到小依次为脆弱性、暴露性、危险性。评价结果可为河南省农业旱灾防控提供科学决策参考。
Introducing projection dimensionality reduction, building a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural drought risk in Henan Province, using projection pursuit model to evaluate agricultural drought risk. The results showed that the risk of agricultural droughts in 18 prefectures and cities of Henan Province showed the spatial characteristics of risk reduction from southwest to northeast as a whole. The overall risk of agricultural droughts showed a declining trend from 1988 to 2012, the comprehensive drought resistance ability increased steadily and the risk fluctuated The largest and the most vulnerable, the least fluctuation and the lower the exposure. The functional layers affected the drought risk in descending order of vulnerability, exposure and danger. Evaluation results can provide scientific reference for agricultural drought prevention and control in Henan Province.