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卫生人力发展是制约整个卫生事业发展的主体因素,预测卫生人力发展是制定卫生事业发展规划和社会发展战略的重要决策依据。由于影响卫生人力发展的因素很多,目前尚缺少一种相对简便的计算方法来对卫生人力发展进行较为准确的预测,而灰色数列模型正是处理这一问题的一种简单方法。本文试用灰色数列模型对我国卫生技术人员的发展数量进行预测研究,并与目前常用的预测方法进行比较。
Health manpower development is the main factor constraining the development of the entire health industry. Predicting health manpower development is an important decision-making basis for formulating development plans for health undertakings and social development strategies. Because there are many factors that affect the development of the health workforce, there is currently a lack of a relatively simple calculation method to accurately predict the development of health workforce, and the gray series model is a simple method to deal with this problem. In this paper, the grey series model is used to predict the number of health technicians in China, and compared with the commonly used prediction methods.